'The Mother of Financial Bubbles' is a view some have of this market. I absolutely understand the perspective. After all based on 'reasonable' PE's either trailing or looking forward, the market is expensive. 

However it's not in classic bubblemania territory contrasted to some historic speculative peaks. Suffice to say this move is certainly due to be reversed, at least to some extent. But the degree of negativity out there may also remain coincident with improperly structured portfolios; which both suggests longs in the wrong sectors (even after over 3 1/2 months of the Trump rally); many expecting both the market and the administration to fall apart; and thus lots of the technically-oriented crowd increasingly involved in bearish strategies.

That may work for the short-run if we get a post-Expiration decline; though I am unwilling to get carried away with that prospect, even though it's coming. By that I mean the first hit can be comparatively shallow; allowing markets a pause; but if (like the nominal pullbacks) it's on light volume, I'd be cautious about getting too negative, at least on the first probe of a real reversal.

As prospects might indeed see shorts run in yet again, it seems logical to be skeptical given the extent and levitation of prices; but also not be cavalier as so many have about getting bearish on this even as 'logic' defies the rally in the minds of those with linear (which can be technical) thinking for months.

So we'll listen to the messages of the market, as we have for months; and in the spirit of believing before the Election that a 'Trump win' changes mostly everything. To wit our extreme bullishness was not based on any affection for the guy, but a respect for the effort to redress some incredibly corrosive policies that are the legacy of several decades of deconstructing the United States; at least its capacity to compete on a global basis in many sectors).

Then we can evaluate the extent of risk based on events (though that might change any day given the 'fluid' news and political backdrop that matters a lot in this environment); and adjust according to market dynamics. 

Bottom line 

Now (not before when others said so) the market overall has reached overbought status; but as the 'bullish capitulation' occurs (Catalyst was an example, but not the only dangerously bearishly-structured hedge or other fund out there) ... as they capitulate we can actually move higher still. 

I know it's not a time to be buying stocks in general; just pointing-out that as Oil or other stocks that were dormant catch up (if they do); you have a shot at this moving 'even' higher. Not being greedy; after all we've restrained the idea of buying starting just weeks after an enthusiastic 'one-way' bullish post Election strategy. 

As this market moves up; of course risk increases; but so does the pressure on the Bears who keep fighting this. Certainly investors won't be desiring to sell much of their buys from Election Day or before (or just after); but simply keep some powder dry or available 'in-event' we get a decent pullback ahead while realizing the fairly wide-held view of a big collapse is either unlikely or simply 'early'. I have said we could get something like 1987; but again it's of course not essential; and not exactly set-up for that, especially if Oil rallies. 

Also prices are high but relative to previous 'serious' bubbles that burst; this is not that posture either, even though lots of guys have been saying that, well even all the way up doing the past three months and longer. My hunch is the forecasts of the market's demise remain premature.