Market Briefing For Thursday, May 31

Europe is not 'doomed' - and though liquidity and currency statuses are not great; the focus on Italy was an overreaction as I suggested. Similarly the press focus on threatened 50 Billion of 'tariffs' on China was reported in a matter-of-fact understated manner. It's probably leverage for Chinese assistance in coming-to-terms on trade; but if implemented; does matter.

  

Meanwhile 'small-cap' Russell made a record high again; which isn't just a rebound in Oil (though that was the general leadership of the market); but a reflection of shifting into less-overvalued stocks than the FANGs or such.

The Fed Beige (Tan) Book as well as the agencies proposed easing of the Volcker Rule, did not budge the S&P much, which continued trading at the day's highs, during both the report and the proposal. Basically implications are of a Fed that can move rates higher eventually, but at a slower pace. And the Volcker Rule inhibited some banking and institutional trading that might not be in the customers' interests; hence possible concern there.  

  

I am not thrilled to see the Rules-easing approach; but it's not a short-term concern. Of course once markets break, a lot of these regulatory retreats, in-hindsight, will be trotted-out as explanations for excessive returns to not all, but some, of the policies that built up to the last financial risk. That's of course a reason (with the debt growth too) that we really need to see fast growth of the economy not only persist, but not become as sluggish as it's a maturing 'normal' business cycle. An infrastructure bill would help. 

A Vertical Integration Model 

Most interesting today was Randall Stevenson's interview on Recode. He made a lot of the points we have about OTT (over-the-top) broadcasting; a shift away from cable and satellite to streaming; and needing bandwidth to deliver it (hence the 'fiber' expansion as well as forthcoming 5G service in a few areas initially; broadly later). And discussed the linkage of databases gathered both by Turner/Time Warner and AT&T's customer relations base that can provide opportunity if combined.  

And if the merger is not approved; it's still a good plan as it is with bringing greater 'content' into AT&T mobile and broadband, which has a tendency to increase the value of customers to AT&T, rather than merely providing a 'pipe'. This is an example of ideal 'vertical integration', and that is why I'm thinking that ultimately (if they integrate and then make money, in that space too, over the next year or two) it deserves a higher multiple at that time, rather than it's 'floor' being determined mostly by its dividend.  

 

 

Aside concern about 'tariff' implementation with that EU, traders tomorrow just might fret the supposed 'miscalculation' (nonsense) by OPEC, with a story suggesting insufficient Oil inventories; hence a need to persevere with the production cuts earlier in the year; the opposite of the circulating theme of higher output. If so that puts a floor under oil and helps the S&P stave-off declines perhaps; unless the other factors like trade overwhelm.  

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