Liberty Media's Mixed Results Mutes Shareholder Enthusiasm

Liberty Media LMCA reported Friday morning its fourth quarter and year end 2013 financial numbers. The results were mixed as demonstrated by two important metrics.

To begin with, net income of $65 million which was reported was down sharply from $165 million in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted operating income before depreciation and amortization (OIBDA) went from a $30 million loss to a $319 million gain. This number was impressive but it still fell short of analysts' expectations according to FactSet.

Analysts were looking for adjusted OIBDA results of $336.4 million, so it wasn't a big miss but was still a disappointment. Revenues rose 12% to $1 billion. Yet once again analysts surveyed by FactSet had been expecting revenue of $1.03 billion.

On a more positive note the Englewood, Colorado-based company said its Adjusted EBITDA grew 41% to $326 million, better than most analysts had anticipated. Adjusted operating income swung from a $60 million loss in the year-ago quarter to a $189 million gain in the last quarter of 2013.

Another of the "trophy" holdings of the Chairman and Founder of Liberty Media, John Malone, is Liberty Global LBTYA which is mainly a cable operator with a focus on the Euro-zone. I discussed this in length in a recent article titled "Best Stocks for 2014 from "Honor Roll Advisors" which offers some timely investment ideas.

Liberty Media is an entertainment empire with holdings that are a panoply of sports, cable TV, radio and diversified media. In addition to its majority ownership in Sirius XM SIRI it owns interests in the Atlanta Braves of National League Baseball fame, TruePosition, Inc., interests in Charter Communications CHTR, Live Nation Entertainment LYV , Barnes & Noble BKS and minority equity investments in Time Warner TWC ,Time Warner Cable, and Viacom VIA.B.

Another portion of good news was that Liberty Media's leadership affirmed 2014 guidance, which includes revenue of over $4 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.38 billion, net subscriber additions of approximately 1.25 million and free cash flow of nearly $1.1 billion.

As expected the company announced its proposal to acquire the remaining equity of SiriusXM not owned by Liberty Media. Liberty Media acquired its controlling interest in SiriusXM on January 18, 2013 and has applied purchase accounting and consolidated the results of SiriusXM in its reporting since that date.

Sirius is a serious part of Liberty Media's operating income. As its President and CEO Greg Maffei explained, the increases in Liberty Media's revenue, adjusted OIBDA and operating income were primarily due to the acquisition of a controlling interest in SiriusXM.

Shareholders, including Warren Buffett, who through his company Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B still owns about 5,300,000 shares (over 5% of the outstanding shares of Liberty Media) worth over $775 million according to Yahoo! Finance, also received mixed news on the company's repurchase program.

Although in Friday's report the company said it had repurchased 5.8% of the outstanding shares of LMCA in 2013, there were no repurchases of Liberty Media common stock from November 1, 2013 through January 31, 2014.

 Liberty Media has approximately $327 million remaining under its current stock repurchase authorization.

Since March 3, 2008, Liberty Media has repurchased 66 million shares for a total cash consideration of $2.9 billion, representing 51% of shares outstanding.

Bottom line is less dilution and what some analysts refer to as a "stealth dividend", since fewer shares outstanding translates to a more valuable price-per-share.

Concerning the company's 52% ownership of Sirius XM, in January Liberty Media offered to buy the remaining shares of the company for $3.68 a share. Sirius XM's Board of Directors has formed a special committee of independent directors to consider Liberty Media's proposal. 

During Friday's earnings call Maffei said the company is responding to requests for information from the satellite radio operator's special committee. "We believe this combination will simplify the capital structure, further align management and provide ultimate strategic and financial flexibility," he added.

As stated earlier in the article, Sirius XM is become a bigger part of Liberty Media's earnings-per-share, operating income and sales growth. I anticipate that Liberty will complete the purchase of the remaining shares of SIRI to help insure the 2014 guidance reaffirmed by Liberty Media's leadership.

Overall there were plenty of positive notes in Friday's earnings report, including good results from its Live Nation investment. Live Nation reported record performance in 2013 with revenue up 11% to $6.5 billion and profitability in operating income of $140 million.

The market responded to this large, mixed bag of company data and news with little enthusiasm as investors had a lot to digest. As of 2 pm EST shares of LMCA were trading slightly higher at 136.60 in a low-volume trading session where the stock's intraday price range swung between $135.75 and $138.95.

The 1-year price chart below illustrates how shares of Liberty Media have responded after recent earnings reports. You can also see the important technical point that the stock is at in relation to its 50-day simple Moving Average price (the green line in chart below).

Chart forLiberty Media Corporation (LMCA)
Keep in mind that analysts' average 1-year price target for Liberty Media is nearly $174. That's 28% above Friday's price level. This upside stock price potential will help encourage investors and traders who want both value and growth to begin their own due diligence with Liberty Media.

 

At the time of publication the author had positions in TWC and LBTYA. Nothing in this commentary should be construed as investment advice or guidance or any recommendation to buy or sell any ...

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