The Dow experienced a largely negative holiday-shortened week, hit by falling oil prices and other concerns. Encouraging news from Greece helped the blue-chip index notch up gains on Tuesday. The Dow declined 0.1% on Wednesday after Fed minutes showed officials debated the effects of hiking interest rates from near zero level.

Oil prices dropped and deadlock over the Greek debt deal continued, leading to losses for the blue-chip index on Thursday. The Dow has lost 0.2% during the first four trading days.

Last Week’s Performance

Last Friday, the Dow gained 0.3%, after higher oil prices boosted energy shares. Prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased 2.9% and 0.6% to $52.78 per barrel and $57.39 a barrel, respectively. Dow components Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM - Analyst Report) and Chevron Corp. (CVX - Analyst Report) advanced 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively. The blue-chip index closed above the 18K mark for the first time this year.

Meanwhile, consumer confidence dropped to a three-month low in February. The University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters’ preliminary reading of consumer sentiment declined to 93.6 in February, in contrast to the consensus forecast of an increase to 98.3. Separately, U.S. import prices declined 2.8% in January, less than the consensus estimate of a 3.2% drop. However, this decline in import prices turned out to be the biggest since Dec 2008.

However, investors focused on encouraging economic growth numbers from the Eurozone. Eurozone’s fourth quarter GDP rose 0.3%, better than the estimated 0.2% gain. The fourth-quarter growth was led by Germany. Investors also kept an eye on the negotiations between Greece and its creditors over the country’s bailout package.

Over the week, the Dow gained 1.1%. Benchmarks settled in the green for the week after a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine boosted investor confidence. Easing concerns about Greece’s debt negotiations also boosted investor sentiment.

Moreover, encouraging quarterly results, including those from Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO - Analyst Report) and The Coca-Cola Co. (KO - Analyst Report) helped markets register solid gains. Separately, China’s disappointing trade data had a negative impact on benchmarks last Monday.

The Dow This Week

Markets were closed on Monday for Presidents’ Day holiday. Stocks started the holiday-shortened week on a positive note, banking on encouraging news from Greece. Indications that the Greek government intends to seek an extension of the country’s loan agreement program improved sentiment. However, conditions for request of new rescue deal were still under negotiations.

Economic data on manufacturing and housing was disappointing. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey Index came in at 7.78 in February, declining from 9.95 in January. Additionally, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index slipped 2 points to 55 in February from January’s reading. The blue-chip index moved up 0.2%.

The Dow lost 0.1% on Wednesday after Fed minutes showed officials debated the effects of hiking interest rates from near zero level. While “many” officials said premature rise in interest rates will hamper U.S. economic recovery, “several” officials opined delaying the same will result in high inflation.

Meanwhile, a drop in oil prices dragged energy shares lower. Meanwhile, investors remained focused on upcoming weekly information on U.S. crude stockpiles. Key stocks from the sector such as Chevron decreased 1.7%.

Stocks finished Thursday’s session mostly in the red as oil prices dropped and deadlock over the Greek debt deal continued. Greece’s request for a six-month extension of the country’s loan agreement program was rejected by Germany, unnerving investors.

Oil prices took a beating on Thursday. Prices of WTI crude oil dropped 1.9% to $51.16 per barrel. Additionally, Brent crude oil decreased 0.5% to settle at $60.21 a barrel. Oil prices fell after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported U.S. commercial crude inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels to 425.6 million barrels during the week ended Feb 13.

Drop in oil prices had a negative impact on energy shares. Dow components Exxon Mobil and Chevron dropped 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index dropped to 5.2 in February in contrast to the consensus estimate of an increase to 8.8. However, unemployment benefits declined in the week ending Feb 14 to 283,000 from previous week’s unrevised level of 304,000. The blue-chip index lost 0.2%.

Components Moving the Index

Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s (WMT - Analyst Report) fiscal fourth quarter 2015 adjusted earnings of $1.61 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.54 by 4.5% and increased from the year-ago earnings of $1.60 per share by 0.6%.

Earnings also exceeded management’s guidance range of $1.49 to $1.59 per share. Positive comps at Wal-Mart U.S., higher operating income, improved performances in Sam's Club and the international business aided earnings.

Total revenue of the retailer increased 1.4% to $131.6 billion (including membership and other income) but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $132.2 billion. Currency depleted sales by approximately $2.6 billion.

In fiscal 2015, Wal-Mart reported adjusted earnings of $5.07 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.99 by 1.6%. However, it declined 0.8% from the year-ago earnings of $5.11 per share. Total revenue increased 2% to $485.6 billion in fiscal 2015 but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $486.2 billion.

In fiscal 2016, Wal-Mart expects to invest in e-commerce initiatives and in associates through higher wages and training, which in turn would put pressure on operating income. These initiatives are expected to pull down fiscal 2015 earnings by around 26 cents to 29 cents per share. Including this, earnings per share for fiscal 2016 are expected in the range of $4.70 - $5.05.

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) raised its quarterly dividend from 30.5 cents to 33 cents per share, an increase of 8%. This is Coca-Cola’s 53rd successive annual dividend increase. As a result, annual dividend has increased from $1.22 per share in 2014 to $1.32 per share. The first installment is payable on Apr 1, to shareholders of record as of Mar 16, 2015.

This hike in dividend is indicative of Coca-Cola’s conviction about its cash flow over the long term. In 2014, Coca-Cola paid dividends worth $5.4 billion to shareowners in 2014. This meant that dividends worth $23.3 billion have been approved since 2010.

The Boeing Co. (BA - Analyst Report) clinched a significant foreign military sales (“FMS”) contract from the Pentagon’s daily funding list on Friday, Feb 13. The contract − valued at $402.8 million – calls for Boeing to upgrade four 767-based airborne warning and control aircraft for the government of Japan.

This is a modification of a previously awarded contact under which Boeing will upgrade four E-767 Japan Airborne Warning and Control System (“AWACS”) aircraft, as well as three ground support facilities. The work is slated to be completed by Jun 30, 2020.

Pfizer Inc.’s (PFE - Analyst Report) New Drug Application (NDA) for pipeline candidate ALO-02 was accepted by FDA for review.

ALO-02, an abuse-deterrent formulation (ADF) opioid, is being developed for the management of severe pain, which requires daily, round-the-clock, long-term opioid treatment and for which alternative treatment options are inadequate. The investigation drug is designed to reduce abuse through oral, intranasal and intravenous routes when crushed.

The NDA was submitted on the basis of results from two phase III trials in patients with moderate-to-severe, non-cancer chronic pain. Additionally, Pfizer conducted three abuse-potential studies in recreational opioid users. Subsequently, the company compared the abuse potential of crushed ALO-02 with immediate-release oxycodone consumed through oral, intranasal or intravenous route. Upon approval, ALO-02 will be the second ADF opioid in Pfizer’s portfolio.

IBM Corp. (IBM - Analyst Report) announced an investment of $1 billion in its storage software portfolio over the next five years. The company has launched a new a set of applications called Spectrum Storage, which is designed to manage storage for enterprises.

According to IBM, Spectrum Storage can manage more than 300 storage devices and yottabytes of data. It is one of the most sophisticated storage systems that can reduce storage costs by up to 90% in certain conditions by automatic data transfer from IBM or non-IBM flash, disk and tape systems.

Cisco Systems is planning to fund French startups as announced by the French government. The company plans to invest up to 100 million euros as part of the funding.

The investment is part of an alliance between the company and the French state. Per the collaboration, Cisco plans to build better networks, boost cybersecurity and offer training to 200,000 people over the next three years. It will also fund academic research in France.

Performance of the Top 10 Dow Companies

The table given below shows the price movements of the 10 largest components of the Dow, which is a price weighted index, over the last five days and during the last six months. Over the last five trading days, the Dow has gained 0.9%.

Next Week’s Outlook

Oil prices have returned to haunt the markets this week, accompanied by rate hike fears. However, the deadlock over negotiations in Greece has guided markets on most days. This is likely to continue until talks reach a conclusion, whatever the outcome. Though both sides seem unwilling to budge from their stated positions at this point, it is unlikely that “Grexit” will occur.

Economic data has been mostly disappointing, but for a decline in jobless claims. Meanwhile, rate-hike fears have also begun to play on investor sentiment. Several important economic reports are slated for release next week. This includes data on housing, consumer confidence, durable orders and inflation with the crucial GDP report rounding off the list. Markets could return to their winning ways if most of these reports are positive in nature.