Company News For Thursday: BAE, Cameco, Vale, Alkermes,

*Unlike other defense firms, BAE Systems reported a boost in its H1 earnings today,up 6.1% y/y to £849 mn ($1.125 bn). This is 17.4 UK pence/sh. However the average forecast from analysts polled by Bloomberg was £2.5 mn higher. BAESY forecast that its full year underlying EPS, excluding one-offs, will rise 5-10%. BAE is gaining from new orders as tensions rise between its western country clients and Russia and China. It also landed a key earnings boost last week when the Theresa May Parliament voted to upgrade its Trident submarines, which it makes. It also nabbed new orders for its Astute submarines and the Eurofighter warplane from NATO countries, while also making sales to the Persian Gulf states, Turkey, and India.

Its Eurofighter order for 28 jets for Kuwait (worth £1 bn to BAE, sold to NATO as Tycoons) are made together with Leonardo-Finmeccanica SpA of Italy. It delivered its first 5 Hawk trainer planes to Saudi Arabia in the half year. All these BAE makes in England, but its Type 26 Warship for which it has orders, would normally be built in Edinburgh and Glasgow, which might exit the UK if Britain leaves the EU, and the facilities might have to be moved, CEO Ian King warned.

King is due to be replaced in that role by COO Charles Woodburn at an unknown future date.

The big negative about BAE is its net pension deficit, up by a quarter from the close of last year because of low interest rates, but of course set in sterling. BAE will review its pension plan next April. It also has a Virginia-based cyber security sub which—as you might expect—is very hush-hush but brings in some dollars.

It reported also today that it got a $245 mn contract from the British Defence (sic) Ministry for a gun system, Maritime Indirect Fires System (MIFS) Integrated Gunnery Systems (IGS) for Type 26 (Scottish) Global Combat Ship for the Royal Navy, initially for 3 MIFS and one trainer system. MIFS IGS includes and integrated 5-inch 62-caliber Mk 45 Mod 4 naval gun with automated ammunition handling, gunfire control, and qualified ammo. The MoD has an option for 5 more MIFS IGS for the rest of the Royal Navy Type 26 fleet. Indirect means the gun fires a projectile which is not aimed from the ship, but whose trajectory is directed by ground or air observers or technical devices or systems. BAE has been working on this new technology since 2012 and now has preferred contractor status with Britain for it.

The stock rose 1.5% in London.

*Canadian uranium miner Cameco (CCJ) reported a lousy Q2 with lower prices for its mine output and lower volumes producing a loss and missing forecasts. Revenues were C$466 mn, down 18% y/y and net earnings moved from a year ago plus C$88 mn to a this year minus C$137 mn. That comes to minus 35 loony cents per share compared to plus 22 loony cents a year ago. The Capital IQ consensus tipped a 16 cent profit.

Adjusted for one-offs non-IFRS losses were C$57 mn or 14 loony cents/sh vs earnings of $46 mn or 12 loony cents a year ago, scant comfort. The extraordinary losses included shut-in of the new Rabit Lake operation which had only just started up, where production had risen 250%, because its uranium cost more to mine than it sold for, leading to an impairment charge of C$124.4 mn. CCJ incurred further losses on foreign exchange derivatives contracts this Q2 whereas a year ago they produced gains.

Moreover CCJ cut its FY sales guidance by 5-10% and lowered its profits estimate to C$1.78-1.88, about a third below the consensus forecast. Demand is down and the price is falling, while CCJ has to continue is capex in anticipation of a comeback as Asian nuclear power plants come on stream—outside Japan where the recommissioning process is being delayed by politics. The stock fell 10.16% so far today and huge volume.

*Vale (VALE) in Brazil reported a 33% drop in its net profit hit by a $1.2 bn provision for its share of the penalties over the Samarco tailings dam disaster last year. Its partner BHP-Billiton took an identical charge. Net came in at $1.1 bn on operating revenues which were down 5% y/y to $6.9 bn. The stock is holding up (in contrast to CCJ)_ because nothing is new.

*Irish Alkermes Q2 results showed a rise in sales of nearly a third y/yto $195.2 mn but because of heavy spending on its drug pipeline. ALKS again reported a loss under US generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) of $47.2 mn. This equals 31 cents/sh, the same as last Q2. Non-GAAP net loss was lower, at $1.6 mn or 1 cent/sh, under 9% of the level a year ago. The main blame was spending on Aristada whose launch has just begun, a long-acting injected drug for schizophrenia and other mental illnesses. ALKS has nearly $678 mn in cash on hand so it can cover this.

It expects that Vivitral, a drug in high demand, will boost 2016 total sales to $710-750 mn up $10 mn from earlier estimates, with Vivitrol now expected to account for $190-210 mn of this. While it says R&D will remain flat at $400 mn it also has boosted its SG&A expenses from $360 mn to $390 mn, not good news.

Its GAAP net loss for the year is estimated will be $215-245 mn, equal to $1.41-$1.61/sh and its non-GAAP loss at $5-35 mn, equal to 16 to 36 cents/sh. It closed yesterday at $51.78 up 1.5%.

Disclosure: None.

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