Thursday, October 13, 2016 8:42 AM EDT
I do not like parabolic rises and I do not like AMZN. I believe we have several signs for a correction that could very easily push price below $700. I believe we have a train that is about to get off the tracks as the lyrics of Rock N Roll Trail by AC/DC say. Yesterday I opened a short position at $834 and only a break above $850 could change my short-term plans but not my longer-term view.
Monthly Chart
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Clearly still inside the long-term bullish channel. But at the upper boundary of the channel at important resistance. A rejection here could put the red upward sloping channel in danger.
Weekly Chart
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Oscillators are warning bulls at overbought levels as price touches the upper channel boundary. A break below $800 will confirm the end of the upward move from $470-480 lows. This will imply a corrective pull back could at least reach the 38% Fibonacci retracement at $705.
Daily
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First short-term target is at $825 and then towards $750-780. Oscillators are even uglier in the daily chart.
4 Hour Chart
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In the 4 hour chart we see a pattern of lower lows and lower highs in a newly created bearish channel. Short-term trend is turning bearish and I believe $800 could be tested this week. Cloud support is critical at $770 by the daily cloud.
I believe that markets are entering a correction phase before the US elections and AMZN will be affected by the risk off environment I expect the markets to be in.
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