Time passes so quickly. It seems like it was just yesterday (at the very end of 2014, to be precise) when analysts were brimming with confidence expecting earnings growth of 4.3% in the first quarter of 2015. To say that projection (and confidence) went kaput is an understatement: the expectation is now -4.6%.

Even more alarming is the markdown in second-quarter expectations. S&P 500 companies that were expected to deliver earnings growth of 5.3% are now expected to chart negative growth of 1.9%. What’s more, there is still ample time left for more downward revisions, which could potentially push the 2015 growth rate into negative territory.

Two primary factors are to be blamed here: low energy prices and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

While lower energy prices may be good for consumer discretionary spending, a whole slew of industries reliant on higher energy prices are poised to slump as the first quarter earnings season gets underway. (Though Alcoa Inc. [(AA - Analyst Report)] “unofficially” kicked off the earnings season last week.)

Approximately 46% of all revenues for the S&P 500 (SPY) come from outside the United States. A strong dollar, which creates a major headwind for multinational firms, is a big reason why many companies have issued a tepid 2015 guidance, leading analysts to slash their earnings estimates.

Investors have been bracing themselves for bad news on the earnings front this quarter (and next).

Beating the Odds

However, like always, there will be some companies that will trump these challenges and stand out with great earnings surprises. Employing our proprietary Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) system can significantly increase your odds of discovering these winners before they report and ride on the potential stock appreciation that follows.

The Zacks Advantage

While it is impossible to know with complete conviction which stocks have the potential to beat estimates this earnings season and which ones will disappoint, our proprietary system makes it relatively easy.

Earnings ESP – the percentage difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate –  can be used for distinguishing stocks that have a high chance of beating estimates in their upcoming earnings reports.

A straightforward way to narrow down such stocks is to screen them with a favorable Zacks Rank – Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) – and a positive Earnings ESP. The combination of a favorable Zacks Rank and a positive Earnings ESP usually indicates an earnings beat. Our research shows that the chance of a positive earnings surprise for such stocks is as high as 70%.

To refine our screen further, we are considering only those stocks that have an impressive history of beating estimates in the past four quarters.

All these stocks look set to continue their winning streak in the soon-to-be reported quarter.

Our Picks

Columbia Sportswear Inc. (COLM - Snapshot Report)

Zacks Rank # 2 (Buy)

Earnings ESP: +5.71%

Average Surprise over the last 4 quarters: +39.05%

A provider of active outdoor apparel and footwear, Columbia Sportswear Company is set to release its first quarter 2015 earnings on Apr 30. The company generates more than 50% of its revenues from the U.S. Thus, it is protected against the negative effects of a strong dollar.

Furthermore, the company belongs to the Textile-Apparel industry, which currently lies in the top 38% of industries, per the Zacks Industry ranking system.

Vail Resorts (MTN - Snapshot Report)

Zacks Rank #2

Earnings ESP: +5.99%

Average Surprise over the last 4 quarters +11.23%

Vail Resorts is one of the leading resort operators in North America and is set to release its third quarter fiscal 2015 earnings on Jun 4.

Most of the bullishness for this stock is focused on the current year and next year’s earnings estimates. Due to upward revisions for the current year and the next, the consensus has increased a respective 23.5% to $3.31 and 9.9% to $3.32. This jump is a big reason for the momentum behind the stock price.

Furthermore, the company belongs to the leisure and recreational services industry, which presently lies in the top 26% of industries, per the Zacks Industry ranking system.

Apple Inc. (AAPL - Analyst Report)

Zacks Rank #2

Earnings ESP +6.05%

Average Surprise over the last 4 quarters +11.39%

The company which doesn’t really need an introduction is set to release its second quarter fiscal 2015 earnings on the Apr 27. While its iPhone will continue to drive sales for Apple, new products like ApplePay and the upcoming Apple Watch will be catalysts over the next several quarters. Moreover, the availability of Microsoft Office and the partnership with IBM will likely boost iPad adoption among enterprises over the long haul.

Furthermore, the company belongs to the Computer & Mini industry, which presently lies in the top 38% of industries, per the Zacks Industry ranking system.

Bottom Line

First quarter earnings are just getting underway, and it could be a bumpy ride. While the weak global economy, stronger dollar and declining oil prices, will weigh on overall results, there are bound to be several large positive surprises this quarter. Utilizing the Earnings ESP methodology can greatly increase your odds of grabbing big winners before they report.