Seven Charts On The State Of The American Labor Market

The American labor market created 142K jobs in September.  Weaker than the 200K the market expected, although an improvement from the downwardly-revised 136K in August.

No one generally remembers more than 7 things at once, so here's a summary the American labor market in 7 charts.

Labor Market - #1 Monthly Job Growth

First, on a positive note, monthly job growth at +142K broke the four month streak of continued job growth deceleration.

The monthly job growth picture peaked in April 2015 at 260K.  Since then, job growth weakened until September, when job growth gingerly reaccelerated from the 136K of August.

It's weak, but not too weak.  Yet.

 

D MM Employment Growth

 

#2 Year-over-year Job Growth

Second, on a year-over-year basis, the jobs picture looks a little better, with growth at 1.97%.  This beats population growth of 1.5%.

Concerning, though, is the decelerating trend in growth that began in February 2015. It's fairly easy to argue that the American labor market is neither too hot, nor too cold.

Of course, labor markets move in bursts and busts, not continuous growth.

 

D YY Growth in Employment

 

#3 Labor Force Participation Rate

The Labor Force Participation Rate is at a low not seen since October 1977.

Although the Labor Force Participation Rate is low, it doesn't necessarily signal anything negative about the state of labor. The Labor Force Participation Rate has been declining since the 2000s, probably indicating that the continually declining participation is more secular than cyclical.

Americans apparently are figuring out that working isn't all it's cracked up to be.  Who would have thought.

 

Labor Force Participation Rate

 

#4 Sector Inspection Says Things are OK, although Some Concern

The sector look follows.  It shows the percentage growth in employment by broadly classified sectors during 2015. Overall, Professional and Business Services is on top at 2.10%.

On the concerning side, Manufacturing is only up 0.14% year-to-date and decelerating.  Because Manufacturing has such large effects compared to say Government or Leisure and Hospitality, if this doesn't reverse soon, Manufacturing will quickly bring down everyone.

D Percentage Employment Growth

 

#5 Full-Time Employment is Simply Amazing

The top-line employment figure disappointed at +142K. This wasn't because full-time employment is weakening.  Instead, it's because part-time employment declined a massive 447K.

Sometimes this could be a recession signal, although the incredibly strong +589K full-time employment growth says large firms are perhaps more positive than investors might be thinking.

D U.S. Jobs Picture, Full-time and Part-time

 

#6 Average Hourly Earnings

Conventional wisdom would have Average Hourly Earnings growing at 3%.

Instead, Y/Y growth is 2.2%.  It's been stuck there since 2010.  September saw the Y/Y growth rate decelerate a little bit.

Hmmm.  The Average Hourly Earnings picture suggests perhaps a mid-cycle slowdown is on the horizon.

 

D Average Hourly Earnings

 

#7 Unemployment Rate by Education Category

Overall, there's still a bias on behalf of employers for individuals with so-called higher education credentials.

The Unemployment Rate for an individual with a Bachelors degree or higher is 2.5%, while the Unemployment Rate for an individual with a High School diploma is at 5.2%.

It's probably worth debating whether having such a bias is still useful.

D Unemp by Educ Labor Market

Labor Market

Labor Market - Summary

The American labor market is certainly slowing, although if 142K job growth continued for a while, no one would complain.

There's lots of shifting parts in the labor market when inspecting the figures by industry, by education category, and a host of other details.

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