Will National Retail's 18% Upside Repeat For 2019?

That real estate sector includes includes nine industries all related to real property ownership. The industries are: general real estate; Real estate services; and seven varieties of real estate investment trusts: diversified, healthcare facilities, hotel & motel, industrial, office, residential, and retail.

Today I'm reviewing a mid-cap real estate investment trust - retail, named National Retail Properties Inc. Its trading ticker symbol is NNN

National Retail Properties Inc is a real estate investment trust that invests in and develops properties throughout the United States. Most of the company's properties are located in the Midwest, South, and Southeast of the United States.

National Retail Properties invests primarily in high-quality single tenant retail properties subject generally to long term, net leases. 

As of June 30, 2018, the company owned 2,846 properties in 48 states with a gross leasable area of approximately 29.4 million square feet and with a weighted average remaining lease term of 11.5 years.

The company has paid quarterly dividends increasing annually for 29 years. it is headquartered in Orlando, Florida

I use three key data points to gauge the value of any dividend equity or fund like National Retail Properties Inc: 

(1) Price

(2) Dividends

(3) Returns

Besides those three, four more keys  will finally unlock an equity or fund in which to invest.

But those first three primary keys, best tell whether a company has made, is making, and will make money. 

NNN Price

National's price per share was $47.59 at yesterday's market close.  A year ago its price was $40.18 for a price increase of $7.41 per share for the year, that's a 18.4% upside! 

Assuming National Retail Properties Inc's price will trade in the range of $40 to $60 next year, NNN's recent $47.59 price could improve by $7.00 to $54.59 by late-October, 2019. 

NNN Dividends

National's most recent quarterly dividend was $0.50 declared October 15th and payable November 15th. 

At this most recent $0.50 quarterly rate, Arbor's annual dividend equals $2.00 yielding 4.2% at yesterday's closing $47.59 price.

Gains For NNN?

Adding the $2.00 estimated annual dividend to my estimated $7.00 annual price upside for National Retail Properties Inc makes a $9.00 potential gross annual per share gain, which will be reduced by any costs to trade the shares.  

 A little under $1,000.00 invested today at the $47.59 recent price buys 21 National Retail Properties Inc shares. 

A $10 broker fee paid half at purchase and half at sale costs $0.48 per share

Subtracting that $048 brokerage cost from the estimated $9.00 gross annual gain leaves a net gain of $8.52 X 21 shares 

= $178.71

for a nearly 18% net gain on a $999.39 investment.

Therefore, National Retail Properties Inc whose trading ticker symbol is NNN, now shows a possible 18% net gain including a 4.2% dividend yield. 

Fourteen brokers cover this stock:

Six say "buy" NNN.

One says NNN will "outperform" its peers.

Seven say "hold" the stock.

In those fourteen opinions, the general recommendation number comes up as 2.07 or "outperform".

These fourteen wizards of Wall Street also reckon a price target $0.26 lower than the current market price or $7.26 lower than my calculated upside estimate.

So, you could look at these speculative numbers this way, National Retail Properties Inc whose trading ticker symbol is NNN, has made money, is making money, and could net a 5% to 18% net annual gain including a 4.2% dividend yield. It could be more, it could be less. 

The above speculation is based on past year performance. The actual results remain to be seen to determine if National Retail Properties Inc is worth your time and money.

Disclaimer: 

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.