MGM Growth REIT Shows Strong Odds

Every New York stock exchange trading day I'm posting a daily dividend stock or fund review. I'll share the three chief qualities of just one equity or fund that could be selected for a dividend stock portfolio I've named the Safari to Sweet Success.

This week the portfolio I'm building (my Safari To Sweet Success portfolio) seeks a high-yield and growing stock in the real estate sector. 

That real estate sector includes nine industries all related to real property ownership. The industries are: general real estate; real estate services; and seven varieties of real estate investment trusts: diversified, healthcare facilities, hotel & motel, industrial, office, residential, and retail.

Today I'm reviewing a mid-cap hotel & motel real estate investment trust or REIT. The trust's name is MGM Growth Properties LLC. Its trading ticker symbol is MGP.  

MGM Growth Properties LLC is a REIT engaged in owning, acquiring and leasing casino resort properties, which include casino gaming, hotel, convention, dining, entertainment, retail and mixed-use facilities, and other resort amenities.

MGP currently owns a portfolio of properties acquired from MGM Resorts, consisting of ten premier destination resorts in Las Vegas and elsewhere across the United States and one dining and entertainment complex which opened in April 2016. 

As of December 31, 2017, these properties collectively comprise 27,541 hotel rooms, approximately 2.7 million convention square footage, over 100 retail outlets, over 200 food and beverage outlets and over 20 entertainment venues. 

As a growth-oriented public real estate entity, MGP expects its relationship with MGM Resorts and other entertainment providers to attractively position MGP for the acquisition of additional properties across the entertainment, hospitality and leisure industries that MGM Resorts or other entertainment providers may develop in the future.

The company qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes. It generally is not a subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. 

I use three key data point to gauge the value of any dividend equity or fund like MGM Growth Properties LLC (MGP): 

(1) Price

(2) Dividends

(3) Returns

After those three, four more keys will finally unlock an equity or fund in which to invest. 

No matter what, it's the first three primary traits that best tell whether a company has made, is making, and will make money. 

MGP Price

MGPs price was $30.56 per share at yesterday's market close.A year ago its price was $28.63 for a gain of $1.93 per share in the past year.  

Assuming MGP's price will continue to trade in the range of $25.00 to $35.00 next year, its price could grow another $1.93 from $30.56 to $32.49 by June 13, 2019. 

MGP Dividends

MGP's most recently declared monthly dividend was $0.42 per share paid in March. That $0.42 monthly dividend equates to an estimated annual payout of $1.68 for 2018-19 which yields 5.5% at yesterday's $30.56 closing stock price.  

Gains For MGP?

MGP's $1.93 estimated year over year price gain plus an anticipated dividend of$1.68 makes a projected gross annual gain of $3.61 per share, which will be reduced by the costs to trade those shares.  

A little over $1,000.00 invested today at the $30.56 price buys 33 shares. 

A $10 broker fee paid half at purchase and half at sale subtracts $0.30 per share.

Taking that $0.30 brokerage cost out of the estimated $3.61 gross gain per share leaves a net gain of $3.31 X 33 shares = $109.23 or a 10% potential net gain on a $1,008.48 investment.

Therefore, MGM Growth Properties LLC(whose ticker symbol is MGP), now shows a possible 10% net gain including a 5.5% dividend yield. 

Eleven analysts cover this stock:

Six say "buy" MGP.

Two says MGP will "outperform."

Three say "hold" the stock.

Their eleven analyst consensus recommendation is 1.73 or "Outperform" and their median price target is $1.50 under my estimated $1.93 gain.

Y Charts rates MGP "not yet rated" for an overall "Y" rating. Y Charts also shows "average" for a Value score of 7 out of ten points. And YCharts ranks MGP "average" with 5 out of 10possible Fundamental points. Y Charts Historic Valuation score for MGP had insufficient data to calculate.

You could look at all those numbers like this: MGM Growth Properties LLC (MGP) has made money, is making money, and could net a 10% to 8.5% net gain next year including a 5.5% annual dividend yield paid out quarterly. It could be more, it could be less.

The above speculation is conjecture based on past year performance. Actual results remain to be seen. They could turn out to be far higher or lower. More study is required for you to determine if MGM Growth Properties LLC (MGP) is worth your time and money.

Disclosure: Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.ycharts. com; www.finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo ...

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