Overnight Markets And News

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 -0.61%) this morning are down -0.53% and European stocks are down -0.85%. A slide in China's Shanghai Composite to a 1-week low spurred selling in U.S. and European bourses and losses accelerated as energy stocks tumbled after Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18 -1.40%) dropped -1.40% to an 8-3/4 month low. European stocks were also undercut on Italian political risks as the 10-year Italy government bond yield rose to a 1-week high of 3.458%. Italy's government is locked in a dispute with the European Commission on its budget plans with Italy projecting a 2.4% budget deficit in its budget for next year while the EU projects an Italian budget deficit of 2.9% of GDP. The European Commission projects Italy 2019 GDP of 1.2%, below the Italian government's estimate of 1.5%, and Italian Deputy Prime Minister Di Maio signaled Italy won't budge in its projections as it prepares to reply to the European Commission by next Tuesday's deadline. Asian stocks settled lower: Japan -1.05%, Hong Kong -2.39%, China -1.39%, Taiwan -1.16%, Australia -0.11%, Singapore -0.49%, South Korea -0.29%, India -0.22%. Weakness in Chinese bank stocks pushed the Shanghai Composite down to a 1-week low and the yuan fell to a 1-week low against the dollar on news the Chinese government plans to set quotas for banks to pump credit into private companies.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.07%) is up +0.05% at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.17%) is down -0.12% at a 1-week low on ramped up Italian political risks. USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.19%) is down -0.18%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ18 +0-060) are up +5.5 ticks as stock market weakness boosts the safe-haven demand for T-notes.

UK Q3 GDP rose +0.6% q/q and +1.5% y/y, right on expectations.

UK Q3 total business investment unexpectedly fell -1.2% q/q, weaker than expectations of +0.2% q/q and the largest decline in 2-1/2 years.

UK Sep manufacturing production rose +0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m. Sep industrial production was unch m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m.

China Oct CPI rose +2.5% y/y, right on expectations. Oct PPI rose +3.3% y/y, right on expectations.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Oct final-demand PPI (expected +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y, Sep +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y) and Oct core PPI (expected +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y, Sep +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y), (2) Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles speaks on stress testing at an event at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., (3) prelim-Nov University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index (expected -0.6 to 98.0, Oct -1.5 to 98.6), (4) final-Sep wholesale inventories (expected unrevised at +0.3%) and Sep wholesale trade sales (expected +0.4% m/m, Aug +0.8% m/m).

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Rockwell Collins (consensus $2.00), Starwood Property Trust (0.53), Tribune Media (0.49).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: none.

Market Comments

Dec S&P 500 E-minis (ESZ18 -0.61%) this morning are down -15.00 points (-0.53%_. Thursday's closes: S&P 500 -0.25%, Dow Jones +0.04%, Nasdaq 100 -0.62%. The S&P 500 on Thursday closed lower on weakness in technology stocks, led by an 8% slump in Qualcomm, after it forecast slower revenue growth into next year. There was also a slide in energy stocks after crude oil prices dropped -1.62% to a fresh 7-3/4 month low. Stocks found some support on strength in the U.S. labor market after weekly continuing unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -8,000 to a 45-1/4 year low of 1.623 million, stronger than expectations of +3,000 to 1.634 million.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ18 +0-060) this morning are up +5.5 ticks. Thursday's closes: TYZ8 -6.50, FVZ8 -4.25. Dec 10-year T-notes on Thursday closed lower on negative carry-over from a slide in 10-year German bund prices to a 2-week low and on the unexpected decline in U.S. weekly continuing unemployment claims to a 45-1/4 year low, which may spur the Fed to keep hiking interest rates.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.07%) this morning is up +0.049 (+0.05%) at a 1-week high , EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.17%) is down -0.0014 (-0.12%) at a 1-week low, and USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.19%) is down -0.20 (-0.18%). Thursday's closes: Dollar Index +0.727 (-0.33%), EUR/USD -0.0063 (-0.55%), USD/JPY +0.55 (+0.48%). The dollar index on Thursday closed higher on weakness in the yen as USD/JPY climbed to a 1-month high on concern the BOJ will maintain its QE program even longer after Japan Sep core machine orders plunged by a record -18.3% m/m (data from 1987). There was also weakness in EUR/USD after German Sep exports unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m, the biggest decline in 7 months.

Metals prices this morning are lower and at 1-week lows with Dec gold (GCZ18 -0.47%) -5.8 (-0.47%), Dec silver (SIZ18-0.85%) -0.118 (-0.82%), and Dec copper (HGZ18 -1.46%) -0.039 (-1.41%). Dec Comex gold (GCZ18) on Thursday closed down -$3.60 an ounce (-0.29%) and Dec Comex silver (SIZ18) closed down -0.143 (-0.95%). A stronger dollar on Thursday weighed on precious metals prices as did signs of strength in the U.S. labor market that bolsters the case for additional Fed rate hikes after weekly continuing unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -8,000 to a 45-1/4 year low of 1.623 million. The FOMC meeting ended after the metals markets closed, although the post-FOMC statement was neutral. Another bearish factor for silver prices is the ongoing fund liquidation of silver positions as silver held by ETFs fell to a 3-3/4 month low of 527.407 million troy ounces on Wednesday. Losses in metal prices were contained Thursday as weak stock prices spurred some safe-haven buying of gold and silver.

Dec WTI crude oil prices (CLZ18 -1.40%) this morning are down -85 cents (-1.40%) at an 8-3/4 month low and Dec gasoline (RBZ18 -1.89%) is down -3.03 (-1.84%) at a 13-month low. Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18) on Thursday closed down -$1.00s (-1.62%) per barrel and Jan Brent crude (CBF19) closed down -$1.10 (-1.53%). Dec RBOB gasoline (RBZ18) closed down -0.31 cents a gallon (-0.19%). Dec WTI crude oil on Thursday slumped to a 7-3/4 month low, Jan Brent crude posted a 6-month low, and Dec RBOB gasoline plunged to a 1-year low on oversupply concerns. Wednesday's EIA data showed a +5.78 million bbl increase in EIA crude inventories to a 5-month high and a +3.6% w/w increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended Nov 2 to a record high of 11.6 million bpd. OPEC crude production has also increased for 6 consecutive months and OPEC Oct crude output rose to a 1-3/4 year high of 33.33 million bpd. A stronger dollar Thursday also undercut energy prices. Strength in crude oil demand from China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, is positive for prices as China Oct crude imports rose +9.6% m/m to 40.80 MMT and China Jan-Oct crude imports rose +8.1% y/y to 377.2 MMT. 

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

Activision Blizzard (ATVI -3.53%) fell more than 9% in after-hours trading after it forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $2.58, below consensus of $2.62.

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS +0.91%) slid more than 4% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.91, well below consensus of $2.08.

Walt Disney (DIS -0.90%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.48, higher than consensus of $1.34.

Yelp (YELP -2.99%) plunged 28% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 net revenue of $241.1 million, weaker than consensus of $245.5 million

Air Lease (AL -1.68%) climbed 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $450.7 million, better than consensus of $442.6 million.

MCBC Holdings (MCFT +2.75%) dropped nearly 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 gross margin of +24.8%, below consensus of +25.0%.

CareDx (CDNA -2.26%) jumped almost 10% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on its 2018 revenue forecast to $74 million to $75 million from a prior view of $68 million to $70 million, above consensus of $69.9 million.

Dropbox (DBX -1.08%) rose more than 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $360.3 million, above consensus of $352.6 million.

Clearwater Paper (CLW -4.12%) climbed almost 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.35, well above consensus of 44 cents.

Unisys (UIS -1.70%) fell almost 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 39 cents, weaker than consensus of 41 cents.

Lions Gate Entertainment (@symbolPercentChange(LGF/A)) rose 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 revenue of $901 million, higher than consensus of $891.2 million.

AMC Entertainment (AMC -1.36%) dropped 9% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q3 loss per share of -82 cents, much wider than consensus of -49 cents.

Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ -1.39%) rallied 17% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.14, well above consensus of $1.77.