Now Is Not The Time For M&A

Times are good for business. Sales are up, profits are up, cash is up. Sure, hiring is difficult and the international trade situation is in flux, but overall, times are pretty good. Times are so good that companies are tempted to acquire other companies. And this is the wrong time for that.

A recent ChiefExecutive article listed 12 ways that CEOs are taking advantage of the boom, or should be. Fourth on the list is to acquire other companies. That is exactly the wrong answer.

My view is contrarian, as M&A activity is hitting records, according to Mergermarket’s 2018 first quarter statistics. Mergers are seasonal, with the first quarter usually a sharp letdown from the fourth quarter. But 2018’s first quarter was the strongest since 2007. And that’s exactly why businesses should not be acquiring others: the market is too strong.

Good times seem like the time to buy, but times are good for everyone else, too. Valuations are high because optimism is high and other companies have the resources to bid high.

McKinsey analysts looked at corporate behavior over several business cycles and found a clear difference between the best-performing companies and the worst: the worst acquired other companies in booms. The best, in contrast, used booms to pay down debt and accumulate cash. They did their acquisitions in slower times, when they could buy at fire-sale prices. Credit is usually harder to come by in downturns, but companies that have paid down debt in the boom still have borrowing capacity in the recession.

Although acquisitions are usually not worthwhile when the economy is strong, there may be exceptions. The ideal target would be a business that fills out a geographic region or a product line or a technological hole. It would be a company the acquirer has wanted for some time, and now the owner has some reason to sell other than the price being high. It could be retirement of the owner, or a spinoff of a division that doesn’t fit the parent company’s long-term strategy. But even in these cases, move cautiously. Make sure the cultural fit is good, and don’t overpay. Walking away from a deal is better than saddling yourself with an overly-expensive asset.

The hardest thing to do is often nothing. In difficult times, business leaders are trying to hang on. In improving times, leaders are trying to expand while maintaining profit margins. But when the business is thriving, business leaders may have too much times on their hands. The temptation to grow through acquisition will be strong.

This would be a good time for a vacation. I suggest Tuscany.

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