The headline contribution from consumer expenditures for goods increased to a +1.11% growth rate (up +0.34% from the prior quarter).
The contribution to the headline from consumer spending on services declined to +0.58% (down -0.68% from the prior quarter). Most of the decline appeared in spending for housing and utilities. The combined consumer contribution to the headline number was +1.69%, down -0.34% from 3Q-2016.
The headline contribution from commercial private fixed investments was +0.67%, up +0.65 from an essentially flat prior quarter. That growth is about equally split between residential and commercial construction.
The contribution from inventories was +1.00%, more than double the +0.49% growth rate recorded during the prior quarter. It is important to remember that the BEA's inventory numbers are exceptionally noisy (and susceptible to significant distortions/anomalies caused by commodity price or currency swings) while ultimately representing a zero reverting (and long term essentially zero sum) series.
The positive headline contribution from governmental spending improved by +0.07% to +0.21%. The entirety of this increase was in state and local capital expenditures, with Federal expenditures contracting (-0.08%, as expected) as they "gave back" the fiscal year-end spending previously moved forward -- a recurring annual phenomenon that artificially boosts pre-election economic reports.
Exports crashed into contraction (-0.53%) quarter-to-quarter, down -1.69% from the prior quarter.
Imports subtracted yet another -1.17% from the headline number, down -0.86% from the prior quarter.
The "real final sales of domestic product" was a relatively weak +0.87%, down over 2% (-2.17%) from the prior quarter. This is the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy and it excludes the reported inventory growth.
As mentioned above, real per-capita annual disposable income was reported to have grown by $177 quarter-to-quarter. At the same time the household savings rate declined yet another -0.2% to 5.6%, now some -0.3% lower than the level recorded in the second quarter of 2016. It is important to keep this line item in perspective: real per-capita annual disposable income is up only +7.44% in aggregate since the second quarter of 2008 -- a meager annualized +0.85% growth rate over the past 34 quarters.
Rick Davis is President of Consumers Metrics Institute (CMI). CMI revolutionizes ways in which economic data is collected and published, by moving the methodologies and technologies involved ...
Rick Davis is President of Consumers Metrics Institute (CMI). CMI revolutionizes ways in which economic data is collected and published, by moving the methodologies and technologies involved into the twenty-first century. First, CMI moved as far 'up-stream' economically as possibly - to the point where a consumer is actually making the purchase decisions for major durable goods. Secondly, CMI captures the data daily and publishes the day-to-day results several times per week.
Consumer Metrics Institute is without equal in keeping its pulse on the consumer specifically and the economy as a whole. CMI's capture of online retail activity from a real time standpoint is cutting edge, hard hitting, and unparalleled.