The Future Of Gold

There is a parallel between the neglect of emerging markets shown by central banks (my subject yesterday) and central bank hostility to gold. In both cases, the Fed and its counterparts want to operate to reach national economic goals without having to worry about the rest of the world. Gold by definition is a global standard outside the remit of central banks.

But there is more impact on gold from the present situation. Firstly, the semi-official foundation of the system remains the US dollar. And the dollar has to be priced against something else, and other currencies won't cut it. For that reason, the valuation of the dollar normally is against the yellow metal.

A second aspect of where we are now is quantitative easing and creation of liquidity by CBs. These policies aim to keep money cheap in order to stimulate economic growth and keep the banks from going bust.

It is not only our Federal Reserve which is boosting liquidity with unorthodox monetary policies. Similar tactics have been adopted by the venerable Bank of England, the tyro European Central Bank. and the least successful CB at fighting off deflation, the Bank of Japan. In fact a new Japanese policy for throwing money at potential borrowers to encourage consumers and producers to increase their debt has just been announced.

As long as money is cheap, the lost return from holding gold is minimal, which should encourage buyers. When and if economies are growing again and rates can rise, gold will not be as cheap, but it may become more attractive as inflation risks increase.

Central bank in general do not like to have too much said about gold prices, and they often sell gold at stupid low prices. Some emerging markets, notably China, like to buy gold when these conditions arise.

2013 was a bust for gold. Not only did the price of the yellow metal fall, but also the volume of gold held by exchange-traded funds plummeted as investors dumped the funds and also sold off their bullion and, in some cases, even their jewelry.

The bright spot for gold bugs was China, where the recently liberalized rules allow individuals to buy precious metals... and they are rushing to do so in an economy where high-yield instruments are also high-risk, and where anyone can see that real estate is over prices, and where shares have plummeted.

There is a theory out that China having overtaken India as the world's gold-buying leader is something new. It is not.

When I visited China for the first time in 1991, I saw in a Hong Kong shop window a 2-ft high golden Buddha that was being raffled off. The winner would have to come closest to guessing the weight of the scupture. Chinese people have always liked gold, but back then they were too poor to buy it in quantity, and it was illegal to do so over the border in China. Hong Kong then was a separate Crown Colony operating under its own rules.

I bid but didn't win.

According to Neue Zuercher Zeitung today, China's gold buying has paid off for Swiss refineries. Because Chinese buy sheets of gold rather than bars, the Swiss are doing a huge business in melting down gold into sheets for the Chinese market. The result is that on both imports and exports, Swiss movements of gold soared in 2013.

While I remain a buyer of bullion, I also own ETFs and shares in the gold business. The best way to buy bullion, I am convinced, is via our advertiser, www.bullionvault.com, where I have done my own shopping for the precious metal. Readers are advised that the stiff know-your-customer rules the UK company imposes are offputting, but likely to be reduced (in part thanks to my lobbying the firm, based in Hammersmith, London, during my recent visit.) But by then the price of gold may have gone up further.

Bullion vault offers totally transparent trading in 4 markets (Switzerland, Britain, the US, and Canada) with very low markups and storage fees. Unlike gold coins, the typical way US small investors buy physical gold, the stuff is valued at the market price, and there are no points for scarcity or points off for wear and tear. Coins are a specialized market where newbies are cheated; bullion is bullion, even in small quantities. Try it and see.

The latest Reuters article says that, unable to get European Union agreement on a financial transaction tax on derivatives and bonds as well as shares, Germany will settle for a tax on stock-trading which will be imposed by 11 states on shares issued by EU companies, sold or bought by EU residents, or traded via an EU intermediary.

This results from lobbying against the FT or Tobin tax by banks and brokers, and fears that taxing bond trading will hurt deficit countries, notably France.

The two countries have to agree on a deal before the May European parliament elections but the tax will probably not go live for another 2 years. The new tax will be 0.01% of the face value of the trade, one-tenth of the original proposal of 0.1%. France in fact already imposes a 0.1% tax on share trading and Britain, the home of liberal markets, has a stamp tax on share purchases.

The proposal for this new levy has been around for over three years and will not die.

More news follows from Jordan, Israel, Korea, Mexico, Belgium, Britain, Brazil, and China. We have a new stock idea today from Vivian Ng (no relation) and we are holding back on another from Frida Ghitis in the hope that the share will fall back some so your editor can better afford its stock and its product.

*Here is our latest Vivian Ng idea, the British listed stock of a Chinese shoe and sportswear company, Naibu Global International, traded as NBU on the London Alternative Investment Market, or AIM. NBU is a small cap stock with high risk and expected to be cheap. But it is beyond cheap in her view, trading today at 80.1 British pence after it last year earned 55.7 pence per share according to a brokerage estimate.

Here is her report:

Naibu is trading at its cash balance and yields over 8%. This is very cheap. The Chinese maker of branded shoes and sportwear is sold in smaller Chinese cities by some 3000 stores. There are over 500 items it sells to its target buyers, consumers aged 12 to 35.

Naibu revenues in H1 of 2013 rose 20% to RMB 950 mn, and its profits in the half went up 16% to RMB 215 mn. As you can see, youths are a very careless segment of the Chinese population, which spends unwisely!

Its preliminary unaudited H2 figures are just as good, producing revenues up 15% to RMB 1930 mn for the whole of 2013. It is followed by UK brokers Daniel Steward who think profits before taxes last year hit RMB393 mn. This is not an official figure from the company. Its earnings per share if the brokerage is right were 55.7 UK pence, so it is trading at 1.44x earnings. Really.

Naibu is not facing funding problems as it closed out H1 with RMB 400 mn in cash, again astonishing, as this is near its total current market capitalization. It paid out dividends of 6 UK pence in 2013, a yield of 9.5% at last year's closing price of 63 pence. While the stock is higher now, its payout ratio is still only about 15% of profits.

Naibu is opening a new plant at the end of this month in Quangang which will add new lines. The brokerage, Daniel Steward, says that pretax profits this year should rise 11% to RMB 430 mn, equivalent to 62 GB pence/per share. Naibu's current assets are RMB 1.29 bn, and liabilities only 200 mn. It is solvent. Its market value of RMB 476 mn is about 40% of its net assets after deducting its liabilities.

I'll add: because of the stock tick rule in London, I offered to buy at 80.25 with E-trade. The GB pound is up today along with the euro and this may push down the share overnight because of course the RMB is more closely managed and pegged to the Greenback..

*To make room for Naibu we recommend selling Brazilian dental plan operator Odonto Prev ADRs at $7.66, up 10% today, but still a loser for us. ODPVY was recommended by Deutsche Bank, its depositary, and has been a toothache for us. I put in a sale at $7.70/sh with the bid $7.01 and the ask at $7.71. It may take a while.

*Yippee and Mazel tov! The two subs of Delek Group, Delek Drilling LP and Avner Oil Exploration LP, have signed an agreement to export natural gas from the Israeli offshore Tamar field to two Jordanian companies via the Eastern Med sub of the operator, Noble Energy of Texas. The off-takers are Arab Potash Ltd, and Jordan Bromine Co. which operate across the Dead Sea from Israel Chemicals. (They compete with ISCHF but also are fellow-members of the legal potash cartel, Canpotex.) The deal is subject to government approvals in Jerusalem and Amman. The back-to-back accords cover a total of 1.8 bn cu meters of gas to be supplied for 15 years starting in 2016 with volume differentials during the year depending on other Israeli demand. The price will be fixed by Brent crude and will be c$500 mn in the aggregate based on take-or-pay quantities and other conditions.

This is a major business breakthrough in Israeli Arab relations. It may lead to a similar but larger deal with Egypt, which has a pipeline across the Sinai desert which can be reversed and unused gas liquefaction facilities in the Nile Delta. Google Alerts says talks with Egypt are taking place. Turkey and Cyprus are also targets for Israeli gas exports from the Tamar and much larger Leviathan fields.

*NY State Atty-General Eric Schniedermann blinked. The price fixing pursuit against generic drug-makers Teva and Ranbaxy over "pay for delay" over generics of Lipitor (from Pfizer) was settled with a total fine of $300,000 (AKA chickenfeed) and no admission of wrong-doing by the Israeli and Indian companies. However they did agree not to collude on generics pricing in the future nor to challenge each others' exclusivity for a new generic approved by the FDA for 3 years. After that presumably they can collude again. Still to come is a California suit alleging that Teva and PFE colluded, and another in Australia saying that PFE paid drugstores for limiting generic sales. Ah the world of healthy marketing of drugs!

However Teva and its partner Active Biotech of Sweden have halted the Libretto trial for treating multiple sclerosis because its design no longer meets the pair's regulatory strategy for a replacement for Copaxone. It is for treating relapsing remittant MS, like Copaxone, Teva's great moneyspinner. The other trial for primary progress MS, called Concerto, is proceeding however. TEVA is up 2.5% on the news.

*Galapagos NV has enrolled all the patients it needs for its proof of concept double-blind phase 2 trials of GLPG0974 against ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease. The drug being tested against placebo is a wholly-owned inhibitor of free fatty acid receptor 2, and results are expected by June of this year. GLPYY is Belgian and employs our former Milan-based biotech maven.

*To overcome the Chinese obstacle to berthing its Valemax ore carriers in Chinese ports, Vale, the shipper of the highest-grade iron ore to China will inaugurate a breakup site in Teluk Rubiah, a terminal in Malaysia, by this October, able to store and handle 60 mn metric tonnes of iron ore. This will cut the time to ship to Asia from 20 days to 15 for VALE's monster vessels which carry 400,000 tonnes of cleaner and cheaper iron ore than even Australia can provide. Chinese cabotage vessels may then offload and ship the ore from Malaysia for their buyers, or Vale can run its own smaller ships from Malaysia to China, to keep the price from going astray.  Jordan Bromine Co. Vale funded some of this with a reais 1 bn local issue in Brazil.

*While I preach about owning physical gold I am not as sure about gold-miners like IAMGold, however cheap it looks (at c5x earnings) or Barrick Gold, whose bonds we own. They are still sharpening their pencils to work out the capex plans with a lower gold price confronting them. Our bond  Barrick North America Finance LLC 4.4% of May 30 20121, cusip 06849RAF9  is now trading above par.

*Two of our euroland stocks, Nokia and A2A, are up in eurozone trading and the currency is up as well. The euro is at a 7 week high against the greenback, $1.37735 at its peak today, and now at $1.3744. AEMMY hasn't moved but its bid is now $5.52 and its ask $6.67! NOK is more visible with a new price of $7.25 after it distributed stock to its employee incentive plan today. If it falls below $7.11 I am buying more.

*Royal Bank of Scotland is selling its structured retail investment products and equity derivatives businesses, plus market-making in them, to BNP-Paribas of France. Price was not revealed but RBS says it was insignificant. It just want to offload the business.

Like other UK banks, RBS faces a need for more capital in the US under new Fed foreign bank capital rules and this will hasten its divestiture to the market of Citizens Bank in the USA. Our preferred become more solid the more investments the 81% state-owned British bank exits from. RBS.pr.X and NatWest.pr.C.

*Liberty Global Media chief shareholder John Malone has arranged that its CEO Michael Fries has first refusal on Malone's 27% stake, a form of succession planning. Cable cowboy Malone is about to turn 73. LBTYA.

*I bought Anton Oilfield Services before Vivian Ng wrote up the share for us yesterday. I paid $133.5 but I will put it into the model portfolio at Monday's close of $137 to be fair. Vivian Ng wants to write up more Chinese companies traded outside China and the big problem is reining her in. ATONY. Which Vivian has a Tony?

Fund notes follow:

*Fibra Uno closed on the Hines industrial and retail real estate portfolio in Mexico by paying US$86.5 mn for 100% leased properties. Located in Jalisco, San Luis Potosi, Aguascalientes, and Guanajuato states, the mostly factory sites are 100% leased and produce annual rents now at $6.9 mn, a gross 8% yield for FBASF, the oldest and largest Mexican REIT.

*The second largest holding of Korea Fund is Hyundai. I was guessing yesterday but now I looked it up. Fear of its neighbor North Korea and of stimulus helping Japan beat its companies have pushed down the KF stock and the Seoul stock market this year after an impressive 2013. Already heavily indebted, Korean consumers and corporations are sitting on cash rather than borrowing or investing now.

*Africa Opportunity Fund has fallen to our initial purchase price of $1.19. AROFF.

*With Sovran Self Storage now rated strong buy by Raymond James, there is renewed focus on our former Global Income Fund, GIFD, now also a self-storage REIT, with ticker symbol SELF. I kept my stake in GIFD, now Self Storage Group Inc., up nearly 4% today.

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