Tuesday, June 27, 2017 2:22 PM EDT
The dollar is at new lows for the year against the euro and Swiss franc. Draghi's comments earlier that transitory forces are dampening price pressures were seen as broadly similar to the Fed's leadership's assessment about US prices. The implication is that the ECB will announce tapering its purchases as it extends them into next year.
On the other hand, the dollar is making new highs against the yen since mid-May. The earlier attempt to establish a foothold above JPY112 in Asia failed, but the surging interest rates (10-year Treasuries up 6 bp and Bunds up 12.5 bp) has weighed on the yen.
The euro is at its highest level since last April against the yen. The dollar appears to be breaking out of a bottoming pattern. This Great Graphic, made on Bloomberg, shows the near-term potential bottoming pattern and the Fibonacci retracements of the dollar's decline in H1. We identified the possible head and shoulder components and the measuring objective (~JPY115.50). The next retracement target (50%) is near JPY113.35 and (61.8%) JPY114.60. A break of JPY111.00 would warn of another failed attempt by the greenback, and would likely coincide with a setback in yields.
Disclaimer: Read more by Marc on his site Marc to Market.
Opinions expressed are solely of the ...
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Disclaimer: Read more by Marc on his site Marc to Market.
Opinions expressed are solely of the author’s, based on current market conditions, and are subject to change without notice. These opinions are not intended to predict or guarantee the future performance of any currencies or markets.
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as research or as investment, legal or tax advice, nor should it be considered information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. Further, this communication should not be deemed as a recommendation to invest or not to invest in any country or to undertake any specific position or transaction in any currency.
There are risks associated with foreign currency investing, including but not limited to the use of leverage, which may accelerate the velocity of potential losses. Foreign currencies are subject to rapid price fluctuations due to adverse political, social and economic developments. These risks are greater for currencies in emerging markets than for those in more developed countries. Foreign currency transactions may not be suitable for all investors, depending on their financial sophistication and investment objectives. You should seek the services of an appropriate professional in connection with such matters.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete in its accuracy and cannot be guaranteed.
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