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On Monday, euro trading finished up by 2 points. The sellers were able to fully win back their losses incurred during the Asian session. Pressure on the USD came from a fall in American state bond yields.

Expectations for a change of direction after the Asian session came off in full. The euro/dollar dropped to 1.0564 from its session maximum of 1.0685 (a fall of 121 points). By the end of the day, the price had restored to 1.0613.

Market expectations:

The key event this week is OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 30th November, in addition to Friday’s NFP. Before the Fed meeting, the euro is unlikely to move far from its current position, so we can count on a continuation of a flat. Along a W-shaped pattern I expect the euro to strengthen to 1.0644. There are no important stats set to come out. The US will have a secondary GDP assessment published, but it will have hardly any effect on the market; unless, of course, there is a massive reassessment of the numbers.

Day’s News (GMT+3):

• 10:00, German October import prices;
• 12:30, UK changes in private borrowing, money supply and mortgage approvals in October;
• 16:00. German preliminary CPI for November;
• 16:30, Canadian Q3 2016 balance of trade and US Q3 2016 GDP (second assessment);
• 17:00, US housing prices in 20 city agglomerates from S&P/Case-Shiller for September;
• 17:15, US NY Fed’s Dudley to speak;
• 18:00, US consumer confidence in November from Conference Board;
• 20:40, US FOMC member Powell to speak.

Technical Analysis:

Euro/ rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView dollar

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.0579, maximum: 1.0644, close: 1.0622.

From a 1.0686 maximum, the euro corrected 112 degrees. The bounce from the 1.0564 minimum was a distance of 45 degrees. I’ve marked out a W-shaped pattern on the hourly. I reckon that another one will be seen before the payrolls. The oscillator stochastic is in the euro buy zone. It would be decent if we see a drop to the trend line at 1.0578 and then a rally to the 67th degree at 1.0644. If we go off the price movements of those of 25th November, we have a scenario in which the price rises. In this situation I reckon we’ll see a fall in the quotes to 1.0564.