EUR/USD 30 Minute Chart

(Created using Marketscope 2.0 Charts)

EUR/USD prices continue to trade in a range after German CPI data release. These figures fell in line with expectations of 0.1%, but so far this event has failed to cause any substantial movement in Euro prices relative to the US Dollar. The top of today’s pivot range starts with today’s R3 Camarilla pivot point, which is found at 1.1345. Currently prices are directly hovering above this point. If prices fail to breakout higher, it opens the EUR/USD to range back down to support. Range support is found 50 pips below resistance at the S3 pivot, which is displayed above at 1.1295.

EUR/USD 30 Minute Chart

(Created using Marketscope 2.0 Charts)

If prices fail to trade back inside of the range, traders may look for the EUR/USD to breakout above the R4 pivot at 1.1369. In a bullish breakout scenario, traders may look for initial price targets near 1.1419, which is found by extrapolating 1X today’s range. Alternatively, in a bearish reversal scenario, traders may look for prices to decline through the previously mentioned trading range to challenge support found at the S4 pivot. A decline below 1.1269 would be significant as it would be the first attempted bearish breakout in the last six trading sessions.

EUR/USD SSI (speculative sentiment index) currently reads at -1.95. With 66% percent of positioning short, this reading favors further Euro strength when taken as a contrarian signal. If the EUR/USD continues to advance I would look for SSI to move to extremes of -2.0 or better. Conversely, in the event of a bearish reversal, I would expected SSI totals to reduce off of their current extremes towards a more natural value.