Since Mr. Draghi jawboned the ECB’s coming QE actions we have had Europe on a ‘me too’ QE play to the US (asset price appreciation Über Alles).  While I took my marbles and small profit and went home on the European index ETFs, the big picture view of the Euro 50 continues to be a good one after holding lateral support and breaking above key lateral resistance.  The downtrend line could be another matter, however (but it’s popping through that too, as of now).

I was using HEDJ, which by the hype it is getting in the media now might be the 2nd most crowded trade on the planet.  What I am more interested in now is a very few individual European stocks (I hold one, a big Pharma) because I am less interested in currency hedging with the potential blow off state of Uncle Buck.

In other words, currency pressure could ease on these stocks (and unhedged ETFs like EZU, EWG, etc.) if the USD and Euro do reversals, even if for counter trend moves.

With the eggheads meeting this week it is probably not a good week to step too far one way or another, but there are several (US and global) markets waiting in the shadows to see if: a) currencies trends are going to change and b) mass-held interest rate assumptions are correct.  You know, it’s the old ‘everybody’s on one side of the boat’ play.

Still, it is highly debatable as to whether there are enough signs that the economy is easing for the Fed to even think about upsetting the apple cart at this time.  I think this week they will continue to play it tough.  But we are now looking out on horizons.  That’s what investors are supposed to do, right?  So that when the macro picture shifts a certain way they are prepared while the herds are… well, herds.

Anyway, the post veered.  But it’s all interconnected so the narrative in my brain is all connected as well.  The challenge is in trying to present it logically and understandably.  I’m working on it…