Euro Breakup Contagion Risk Is Exploding
With existential elections looming, Sentix Euro Break-up Contagion Index - a market measure of the contagion risk from one or more countries leaving the euro area within the next 12 months period - has hit its post-2012 record recently...
As Sentix notes, the Euro crisis is once again in the limelight. And this time the drama consists of three main actors: Greece, Italy and France.
How dangerous this tendency for the cohesion of the eurozone could become isa look at the index to the spreading risk, which has almost climbed tothe 50% mark - an all-time high!
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France and Italy both seeing Euro-exit odds rising...
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The Eurozone has now developed many more breaking points than just Greece. Although it has now been somewhat calmer about Italy, the euro exit probability remains almost unchanged at 13.9%. Added to this is the strong rise in the probability of exit from France. This is now 8.4% - compared to 5.7% in January! An all-time high.
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