The UK Supreme Court determined that Prime Minister May could not invoke Royal Prerogative as the authority needed to send notification to the EU that the UK intends to withdraw from the EU as outlined in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. This meant that the government had to put a bill to the House of Commons seeking its authority to trigger notification under article 50. That process is on-going and will almost certainly clear the commons (on a third reading of the bill) tonight. Opposition parties tabled a vast raft of amendment proposals for the bill, some of which were given debating time. They sought a range of outcomes from ensuring the rights of EU citizens in the UK, to agreed scrutiny/reporting of progress, a vote at the end of the process which could throw out the government’s deal and allow the UK to remain in the EU to “reasoned amendments” seeking to block the passage of the bill in its entirety.

There will be further debate tonight on amendments related to negotiation priorities, but it looks unlikely if any will be adopted. Given that the Labour opposition party has said that it will enforce a three line whip on its members which instructs them to vote for the bill, it is highly likely that it will clear the Commons tonight. The bill would then be sent to the House of Lords where, again, it could be amended. Were that to happen, the Commons would have to reconsider the bill.

The irony of the situation is that a very clear majority of MPs back a remain stance and are fully aware of the risks that leaving the EU will pose to the UK. They also know that power over the matter passes from the UK to the EU as soon as notification is given. 52% of the electorate that was enfranchised and chose to vote voted to leave the EU (for whatever reason). The fact is that this represents just 37% of the full UK electorate (on a turnout of 72%) and therefore is not a majority. Many MPs feel that they cannot oppose “the will of the people” and so are voting for this very risky venture.

Mrs May intends to fully withdraw from the EU and then hopes to negotiate preferential access to the Single Market – but this presupposes that the EU will (all 27 states and the European Parliament) ratify such a deal which may play badly against the backdrop of their own national politics. Her “Plan B” is to fall back on WTO rules and to turn the UK into a low corporate tax sink…