Tuesday, December 26, 2017 12:20 PM EDT
The strong advance in international (global ex-US) equity markets this year slowed down in the final quarter as advanced-economy markets consolidated their substantial gains and some emerging markets gave back part of their earlier advances. Latin American markets were hit by weakness in commodity markets, weakness in the Brazilian economy, and Mexican concerns about its trade relations with the US. In Asian economies, tech stocks followed the weakness in US tech stocks, but Asian economies continue to be the global growth leaders. As a whole, international markets are expected to close out 2017 with a 2% gain for the quarter and a 23% gain for the year. The gain for the European and Asian advanced economies in 2017 looks likely to be a little less, 21%. The annual gain for emerging markets is going to be greater, around 33% if South Korea is included as an emerging market or around 26% if South Korea is now considered to be an advanced economy.
The broad rally in global equity markets this year was based on an increasingly synchronized recovery in most economies, with many reaching full-employment performance. Global GDP growth this year looks likely to have reached a strong 3.7% pace, and a similar advance is projected for 2018. Growth in the advanced economies was about 2.2% while the advance in the emerging markets as a group was 4.7%, more than double the advanced economies’ growth. China’s and India’s economies continued to lead, with gains of 6.8% and 6.7%, respectively.
We are ending the year with our International Portfolio fully invested with overweights of emerging markets and, regionally, of Asia. Among advanced-economy markets, we continue our overweight of Japan and of smaller-cap stocks. The robust outlook for the global economy accompanied with low-interest rates leads us to think that the global bull market in equities will continue in 2018.
Disclaimer: The preceding was provided by Cumberland Advisors, Home Office: One Sarasota Tower, 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303, Sarasota, FL 34236; New Jersey Office: 614 Landis Ave, Vineland, NJ ...
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Disclaimer: The preceding was provided by Cumberland Advisors, Home Office: One Sarasota Tower, 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303, Sarasota, FL 34236; New Jersey Office: 614 Landis Ave, Vineland, NJ 08360. 1-800-257-7013. This report has been derived from information considered reliable, but it cannot be guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. For a list of all equity sales/purchases for the past year, please contact Therese Pantalione at 1-800-257-7013, ext. 315. This report is currently about 1700 pages in length. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability are an indication of future performance. This does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation or recommendation of an offer to buy or sell any securities directly or indirectly herein. Cumberland Advisors supervises over $2.4 billion in separate account assets for individuals, institutions, retirement plans, government entities, and cash-management portfolios. Cumberland manages portfolios for clients in 48 states, the District of Columbia and in countries outside the U.S. Cumberland Advisors is an SEC registered investment adviser. For further information about Cumberland Advisors, please visit our website at www.cumber.com. Please feel free to forward this Commentary (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. CONFIDENTIAL: This e-mail, including its contents and attachments, if any, are confidential. If you are not the named recipient please notify the sender and immediately delete it. Copyright and any other intellectual property rights in its contents are the sole property of Cumberland Advisors. E-mail transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which arise as a result of e-mail transmission. If verification is required please request a hard-copy version. It is important that you do not forward full account numbers, tax identification numbers or confidential personal information via email unless it is password protected Although we routinely screen for viruses, addressees should check this e-mail and any attachments for viruses. We make no representation or warranty as to the absence of viruses in this e-mail or any attachments. Please note that to ensure regulatory compliance and for the protection of our customers and business, your e-mail message is not private in that it is subject to review by the firm, its officers, agents, employees, and by federal or state regulatory authorities including but not limited to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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