Everybody Trades With Their Fingers Crossed
This song takes a cynical look at life. “The dice are loaded, the good guys lost, the fight was fixed, the captain lied…”
Yet, Cohen makes sure to mention that a fatalistic attitude defines us (That’s how it goes”). He further goes on to say that we are hopeful, that “Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed.”
The world lost Leonard Cohen last Thursday. After a tumultous week filled with upsets and surprises, ironically his fatalistic and hopeful sentiments dominated the market.
The Modern Family in particular, came alive. Again ironically, after ten months of divisiveness, all of them, apart from Retail, turned bullish. Retail confirmed an Accumulation Phase.
Looking back before the election, our Granddad Russell 2000 (IWM) fell to nearly touch the 200 daily moving average.
As granddaddys go, the 200 DMA fits the bill as the moving average most watched and respected by institutional investors. Not only did IWM hold the 200 DMA, but also held steadfast above the 50 week and 23 month moving averages. We can call that clutch support.
Taking Russell’s lead, everyone else in the family including Biotechnology and Retail, kicked into gear.
As our proclaimed arbiter of the U.S. economy’s health, the Modern Family broadcasts optimism. Does that optimism reflect reality?
Last Monday, IWM gapped higher. Tuesday, it held the gap. Despite the overnight terror the market would collapse, on Wednesday IWM opened only slightly lower.
Since then, it has rocket fueled up to make new 2016 highs. The all-time high from June 2015 is 129.10.
Even more startling, Granddad’s Prodigal Son Regional Banks (KRE) soared to levels not seen since 2007! The move in KRE far outpaced the move in Semiconductors (SMH), which already had made new all-time highs well before the election. Afterwards, SMH underperformed.
However, Transportation improved its performance appreciably. Biotechnology, still very far from a leading sector, at least brought back some sidelined cash into the market.
Henceforth, if Biotechnology holds and Retail’s rise is legitimate, this week could bolster confidence exponentially.
Here’s where many trader’s heads get turned around.
Trying to ascertain the appearance/reality dichotomy creates skepticism. Fabulous for philosophers and poets like Cohen, for traders skepticism leads to missed opportunity. Which leads me back to the Modern Family and its separate reality.
Granted, way too premature to predict how the new administration will handle the plethora of issues coming its way. Nor, can we predict how the public will behave accordingly.
Nevertheless, in this moment of time, our Family gathers to play nicely together. We haven’t celebrated with them all in attendance since the spring of 2015.
“Everybody knows the scene is dead
But there's gonna be a meter on your bed
That will disclose
What everybody knows”-Leonard Cohen 1934-2016
S&P 500 (SPY) 214.50 now support-key support as it is the 50 DMA. 218 resistance
Russell 2000 (IWM) 126 now pivotal as Gramps found pain killers
Dow (DIA) Inside day to end the week of an impressive move to new highs
Nasdaq (QQQ) 117.35 pivotal resistance and the 50 DMA. 114 support
KRE (Regional Banks) 49.00 pivotal 51.05 all-time high made in February 2007
SMH (Semiconductors) Back to unconfirmed bullish phase making 67.50 pivotal and 69 closest resistance
IYT (Transportation) Took a rest with an inside day. 152 support
IBB (Biotechnology) 279 ultimate support. 290 pivotal and 300 big time resistance
XRT (Retail) 44.25-44.40 pivotal area. 45.50 substantial resistance
IYR (Real Estate) Stopped the bleed with an inside day. Needs more
GLD (Gold Trust) No fear here folks. 115.40 a huge area of support.
SLV (Silver) 16.11 now support with 17 resistance
GDX (Gold Miners) If this gets near 20.05 it is worth a buy for at least a pop-a bit overdone
USO (US Oil Fund) Cheap oil-wait for it-the backlash that is…
TAN (Solar Energy) 2 inside days-has my attention
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 120.15 the 200-week moving average
UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.34 support and 25.63 next point to clear
Disclosure: None.
Thanks dearest Michele Schneider for sharing this information with me