My Logo is: "Investing Wisely."

The Aerospace Industry Group has been one of the most rewarding industries and remains quite lofty. But fundamental valuations are way too high and my technical indicators are not holding up over the recent months. Using rather simple comparative analytics, my forecast for Aerospace is good but not nearly bullish as it was six months ago.

Aerospace has been, I said "has been", a great place to have invested your money in recent years. However, my forecasts suggest that these good times are waning and caution is advised.

Aerospace, like its many peers, has performed brilliantly. It has also taken some major hits of over 50% and that will occur again. I will keep you posted. Please scroll down to my fifteen year chart, it tells you quite an interesting story. The story is all about risk and reward.

TIP: Industry Groups are the leading key to consistent profits. Without this important tool you are likely missing the -- lowest risk / highest returns -- that are readily available if you do your homework every day.   - The Old Professor

Some Analysts do their jobs well and others do not, it is just that simple.

My Basic Views on Industry Groups

All "Sector and Industry Group" Analytics is pretty much the same. As I often mention it is a matter of Rotation. Over time they all move from bullish to bearish and back again to bullish just like the U.S. Indices and most all companies and ETFs. There are always current big winners and unfortunately big losers – the trick is to be able to sort the current favorable from the current un-favorable (please see the table below). The above "Risk and Reward" section explains this very well.

My focus is first - the "What." "What" are the companies/ETFs I currently view as most favorable and "What" is the probability of enjoying superior profits. Next is my forecasting for identifying the "When." "When" is it prudent to own a Company / ETF for the ride up? There is also the "When" for ride down that needs to be carefully analyzed! Patience and doing the Analytics (Diving Deep for Profits) is also not a long-suit for many investors. I just try to help.

Table

The Table below shares my Component Aerospace Indicators, companies and a few ETFs. At this time they are on balance doing well, however they also have some clear negative variances or divergence in my analytics of how they forecast.

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Note: There are many more combinations of the above information in my Forecasting procedures. That all comes before any investment decision can be prudently made. My "Notes for Table" will offer help to understand my Methodology of "Investing Wisely." I hope this will provide you with guidance and future profitability.

Prudent Investment Decisions

Is it too late to buy? At this time frame in this very old bullish cycle, the answer is yes. You might want to remember that it is never too late to sell in a bearish cycle but – why wait? My General Market Bullish and Bearish Inflection Points occur only several times per year. Hopefully you are a patient and disciplined investor and will want to follow my forecasting of these very important / essential inflection points.

My work/analytics starts with forecasting and ends with very selective formal recommendations. In between it is a matter of waiting for the next General Market / Sectors / Industry Groups to offer a new Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point.

Charts

A Fifteen Year Perspective on the Internet Industry ($DJUSAE)

It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework. Diving deep for profits takes practice and the desire to "Invest Wisely." The Aerospace Industry Group and ETFs has taken some big hits over the years:

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You will also note that Aerospace Industry Group has very clearly replicated the S&P over the years. There are clear reasons WHY, if you take the time to study this and my other Longer-Term Charts closely and follow my "Risk and Reward" URL.

Compare (from a Percent Point and Perspective of View)

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Perspective is a very profitable investment tool and seldom used effectively by most investors. There were clear reasons both fundamentally and technically for these particular securities to out-perform as well with some component companies to under-perform over the years. The "cluster" is unique in this case and has been a big positive in my analytics over time. This is true about all companies / ETFs.

Concluding Remarks

At this time I reiterate my favorable opinion for holding many / most of the component securities within the Aerospace Industry Group. Buying may be prudent only after a notable pull-back -- but even then you will want to pass or definitely be highly selective with your choices of investment securities.

At this time in history, the U.S and world economies remains quite weak, and the positives are frequently off-set with further negative economic data. And the stock market itself is very over-valued and currently very over-bought. Interest rates are on the rise again. Taking profits (and holding-cash if you have any), is often the best place to be. If you don't have any cash, I suggest you get some!

Of course I have some positive exceptions on my bullish list, but that list diminishes almost daily. That's bearish!

When I forecast a bearish cycle, I have a long look at Inverse ETFs, something you may want to research as well.

Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please email Me with your questions or thoughts. There are fantastic bullish investment opportunities if you will just be patient and disciplined with the management of your portfolio and hopefully my guidance and direction.

Smile, have fun "Investing Wisely,"

Dr. Steve