How Much Credit Does Trump Deserve For Economic Growth?

US economic growth was revised up to a 3.3% pace in yesterday second GDP estimate for the third quarter – the strongest quarterly rise in three years. Fourth-quarter estimates look upbeat too, holding out the possibility that output will rise by 3%-plus for three quarters in a row. If the Q4 prediction is correct, the US will post its best cumulative three-month advance since the 2014:Q3-2015:Q1 run.

The firmer pace of growth is confounding and in some cases disturbing Trump’s political opponents. The political-minded frustration is understandable since a strong economy expands the President’s influence, validates his policy agenda, and boosts the odds for his re-election, assuming he runs again in 2020.

For many on the left, the notion that Trump’s economic policies appear to be succeeding is surprising. Recall that in the early hours after his election victory in 2016 Paul Krugman, Nobel prize-winning economist and New York Times columnist, wrote:

we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.

Krugman quickly retracted the forecast, which turned out to be a wise decision. Indeed, the US economy – and the global economy – are humming along at a solid clip and recession risk is virtually nil at the moment.

Not surprisingly, Trump is eager to play up the good news. On Wednesday he tweeted that “we are in record territory in all things having to do with our economy!” He also claimed, citing research by the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, that Q3 growth would have reached 3.9% if not for the hurricanes that wreaked havoc in several states in the South in the previous quarter.

As recently as September economists were dismissing Trump’s 3% growth target. Survey data published by the National Association of Business Economists called for the macro trend to decelerate to 2.3% in 2018. Trump countered at the time that his policies, including tax cuts, were laying the groundwork for a stronger expansion: “I happen to be one that thinks we can go much higher than 3 percent. There’s no reason we shouldn’t.”

It’s getting tougher to dismiss that claim. Just yesterday Fed Chair Janet Yellen testified in Congress that economic momentum is strengthening.

Voters are increasingly giving Trump credit for the faster growth rate, according to recent polling from Quinnipiac University. As CNN reported yesterday, “For the first time, voters are now essentially evenly divided on whether President Donald Trump or former President Barack Obama is more responsible for the current state of economy.” By comparison, in March just 19% of voters said Trump was more responsible for the state of the economy vs. 67% for President Obama.

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But the partisan divide is as conspicuous as ever:

Among Republicans who say the economy is in good shape, they give the credit to Trump by a two-to-one margin. Among Democrats who believe the same, Obama has a six-to-one advantage.

An objective analyst of the economy can still make a case that it’s premature to assign all the credit for growth to Trump. But a year after the election, the argument that macro momentum is due to Obama-era policies is wearing thin. At some point in next year’s second half, assuming the expansion rolls on, it’ll be time to put the idea to rest completely.

The weak spot for the giving the President credit remains the absence of a major legislative victory on the economic front. But if the tax bill that’s currently in the Senate receives the green light, which is plausible at this point, the odds will rise for extending the economic expansion well into next year and perhaps beyond.

In turn, Trump may be destined to preside over the longest post-war expansion.Good news from an economic perspective, but a political nightmare for Democrats and Trump’s opponents.

Disclosure: None.

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Comments

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Doug Morris 6 years ago Member's comment

I care less about who gets credit, and more about the improvements itself. The American economy needs to grow. Let's focus more on accomplishing that, and less on arguing over who gets credit for it, or who is a better president.

Dick Kaplan 6 years ago Member's comment

Few deny that #Trump has business acumen. One of his strengths during his presidential run was his economic credentials. My concern however is that the man has no filter and is an embarrassment to America. His latest Twitter attack on London is yet another example that the man is not fit to be president.

Angry Old Lady 6 years ago Member's comment

I agree. His daughter is more presedential.

Harry Goldstein 6 years ago Member's comment

Dick Kaplan, I would dispute #Trump's business acumen. it's easy to make money when you have money, and he was able to do well with his daddy's wallet and contacts. But you are ignoring his long line of failed businesses and bankruptcies.

While it may be hard to still claim that the economic improvement is due to Obama's policies, I suspect there are many factors at play and it would be difficult to give credit to Trump alone. I do agree however, that the man is an embarrasment.

Duke Peters 6 years ago Member's comment

#Trump may lack a filter, but some of us are sick of the atmosphere of political correctness which has completely gotten out of control. As long as you don't take some of Trump's more over the top statements too seriously, everything is fine. The economy is improving, our enemies like North Korea and Iran know they can no longer walk all over us, and the country seems more vigilent against terrorism.

The man is far from perfect (who is?) but give him credit where credit is due. His strength is fixing the economy and he's been doing that bit by bit.