Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 3 And July 10
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
||||
Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
||
Week of July 3 |
||||
July 3 |
||||
PMI Manufacturing Index - June |
52.1 |
52.1(p) |
52.2 |
|
ISM (Mfg) - June |
54.9% |
54.9(p) |
55.1 |
|
ISM Prices |
60.0 |
60.5 |
||
Construction Spending - May |
0.4% |
-1.4 |
0.5 |
|
Auto Sales* - June |
16.6M |
16.7 |
16.6 |
|
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence |
||||
Factory Orders - May |
-0.5% |
-0.2 |
-0.6 |
|
Durable Goods Orders |
-1.1 |
-1.1(p) |
||
Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.2 |
0.4 |
||
July 6 |
||||
Initial Unemployment Claims |
240K |
244K |
244 |
|
ADP Employment Report - July |
175K |
253 |
178 |
|
International Trade - May |
-$47.0B |
-47.6 |
-46.2 |
|
PMI Services Index |
53.0 |
53.0(p) |
53.0 |
|
ISM Services - June |
56.4 |
56.9 |
||
Nonfarm Payrolls - June |
180K |
138 |
170 |
|
Private |
175 |
147 |
164 |
|
Manufacturing |
6 |
-1 |
||
Unemployment |
4.3% |
4.3 |
4.3 |
|
Average Workweek |
34.4HR |
34.4 |
34.4 |
|
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.2 |
0.3 |
|
Week of July 10 |
||||
July 10 |
||||
Consumer Credit - May |
$12.0B |
8.2 |
||
July 11 |
||||
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - June |
104.5 |
104.5 |
||
JOLTS - May |
5.95M |
6.044 |
||
Wholesale Inventories - May |
0.3% |
0.3 (p) |
||
July 13 |
||||
Producer Producer Index - June |
0.1% |
0.0 |
||
Core PPI (less food, energy and trade services |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
||
Treasury Budget - June |
-$45.0B |
-88.4 |
||
July 14 |
||||
Consumer Price Index - June |
0.1% |
-0.1 |
||
Core CPI |
0.2 |
0.1 |
||
Retail Sales - June |
0.1% |
-0.3 |
||
Retail Sales, ex Autos |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
||
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gasoline |
0.1 |
0.0 |
||
Industrial Production - June |
0.2% |
0.0 |
||
Capacity Utilization |
76.7 |
76.6 |
||
Manufacturing |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
||
Business Inventories - May |
0.2% |
-0.2 |
||
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p) |
97.1 |
95.1 |
||
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
more