Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 17 And July 24
Revised Quarterly Forecasts
|
July 14, 2007 |
||||||||||
|
Q117 |
Q217 |
Q317 |
Q417 |
Q118 |
Q218 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
||
|
GDP: Annual |
1.4 |
2.6 |
3.0 |
2.6 |
1.2 |
2.8 |
1.6 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
|
|
GDP: Q4/Q4 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
|||||||
|
CPI: Year/Year |
2.6 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
|
|
Core CPI: Y/Y |
2.1 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
4.7 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
4.2 |
|
|
Fed Funds: End Qtr |
0.875 |
1.125 |
1.375 |
1.375 |
1.625 |
1.875 |
0.625 |
1.375 |
2.125 |
|
|
Housing Starts (Mil) |
1.18 |
1.21 |
1.30 |
|||||||
|
Light Vehicles (Mil) |
17.5 |
17.1 |
17.2 |
|||||||
|
Retail Sales: Nominal |
3.0 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
|||||||
|
Retail Sales: Real |
1.7 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
|||||||
|
Crude Oil (Brent) $ |
44 |
47 |
49 |
|||||||
|
Crude Oil (Cushing) |
43 |
45 |
47 |
|||||||
|
Q317 |
Q417 |
Q118 |
Q218 |
Q318 |
Q418 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
|
Fed Funds: End Qtr |
1.125 |
1.375 |
1.375 |
1.625 |
1.875 |
2.125 |
0.625 |
1.375 |
2.125 |
2.875 |
|
10-YR Treasury |
2.45 |
2.55 |
2.775 |
2.94 |
||||||
|
30-YR Freddie Mac |
4.20 |
4.28 |
4.48 |
4.63 |
Forecasts for the Weeks of July 17 and 24
|
` |
Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
|
|
Week of July 17 |
||||
|
July 17 |
||||
|
NY Fed Manufacturing Index |
16.0 |
19.8 |
15.0 |
|
|
July 18 |
||||
|
Export Prices - June |
0.0% |
-0.7 |
0.0 |
|
|
Import Prices |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
|
|
NAHB Index - July |
68 |
67 |
68 |
|
|
July 19 |
||||
|
Housing Starts - June |
1.180M |
1.092 |
1.17 |
|
|
Building Permits |
1.210 |
1.168 |
1.206 |
|
|
July 20 |
||||
|
Initial Unemployment Claims |
243K |
247 |
245 |
|
|
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
24.0 |
27.6 |
23.5 |
|
|
Leading Indicators |
0.3% |
0.3 |
0.4 |
|
|
Week of July 24 |
||||
|
July 24 |
||||
|
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index |
52.0 |
52.0 |
||
|
PMI Services Flash Index |
54.2 |
54.2 |
||
|
Existing Home Sales - June |
5.510M |
5.620 |
||
|
July 25 |
||||
|
FHFA Home Price Index - May |
0.4% |
0.5 |
||
|
S&P Case/Shiller Index - May |
||||
|
Twenty City M/M |
1.0% |
0.9 |
||
|
Twenty City M/M - SA |
0.3 |
0.3 |
||
|
Twenty City Y/Y |
6.0 |
5.7 |
||
|
Consumer Confidence - July |
118.3 |
118.9 |
||
|
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
7.0 |
7.0 |
||
|
July 26 |
||||
|
New Home Sales - June |
603K |
610 |
||
|
FMOC |
1.125% |
1.125 |
||
|
July 27 |
||||
|
Initial Unemployment Claims |
||||
|
Durable Goods Orders - June |
2.0% |
-0.8 |
||
|
International Trade in Goods - May |
-$65.0B |
-65.9 |
||
|
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June |
-0.50 |
-0.26 |
||
|
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
11.0 |
|||
|
July 28 |
||||
|
GDP - Q2 (a) |
2.6% |
1.4 |
||
|
GDP Implicit Price Deflator |
1.2 |
1.9 |
||
|
Employment Cost Index - Q2 |
0.5% |
0.8 |
||
|
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y |
2.3 |
2.4 |
||
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (r) |
93.1 |
93.1 |
||
|
|
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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