The stock market had been under pressure starting about Thursday Apr 19, based on the elevated level of new 52-week lows.

But then starting Thursday of this week, selling pressure diminished as the level of new lows decreased down to a harmless level on Friday.
 

So with the new lows cooperating, now we watch to see if the stock market can start to generate enough new highs to push the major indexes higher. Based on the chart below, I like the chances of higher stock prices over the coming weeks. But...
 

I think we all under-estimated the negative impact of higher rates on stock prices, and specifically on Tech stocks. And without Tech leadership, the market probably isn't going very far, etc.

This past week was big for all rate-related ETFs that are designed to increase in price as inflation ticks higher or as rates rise. This ETF is showing a very nice looking bullish chart.
 

As the prospects for higher rates improved this week, the charts for the stocks that benefit from higher rates also improved.

This Regional Bank ETF (KRE) has been extremely frustrating for over a year as it ticked two-steps forward, one-step backwards. But with rates on the rise again, the chart looks ready to push higher.
 

Oil continues to push higher too which also favors inflation and higher rates.

Or maybe higher oil more than favors inflation. More like it is the heart of inflation. Has there ever been an inflationary period of time that didn't include much higher oil prices?
 

Technology stocks generally do not like higher oil, inflation and rising rates. It is showing in this chart of the Semiconductors which are struggling.

This is the chart that is undermining the general stock market, in my humble opinion.
 

The Dow has pulled back to its moving average, and the Diffusion Index has started to tick up above the zero-line.

Where does it go from here? I don't know, but maybe it is a lower risk entry point if the moving average is used as a stop?

If the market does start move higher again, and if I decide to jump in, I would primarily be a buyer in the areas that do well with rising rates. And my holding period might short to intermediate-term.
 

On balance, this chart continues to favor stocks longer-term. The ECRI index and small cap trends are favorable even though the ECRI index may be pointed to slow growth. The M2 growth is weak, though, but it is hard to know how important it is.
 

The advance/decline line continues to favor stocks. It is hard to be too negative towards stocks with a healthy looking chart like the one below.
 

Outlook Summary:

The long-term outlook is increasingly cautious. Reducing overall exposure to stocks on rallies.
The medium-term trend is down.
The short-term trend is down as of Apr-20 

The medium-term trend for bonds is down as of Apr-19. The 10Y yield is back above its 50-day.

Investing Themes:

Medical Products
Cyber Security
Payment Processors

Military Defense

Strategy:

Buy large cap stocks and ETFs on pullbacks of the medium-term trend.

Buy small cap growth stocks on break outs to new highs during short-term up trends.

Stop buying when the short-term trend is at the top of the range.

Take partial profits when the uptrend starts to struggle at the highs.

Never invest based on personal politics.