It looks like we have a deal!

After days of speculation and a whole lot of aggressive rhetoric and brinksmanship from the Iranians, OPEC looks to have the basis for a deal on a production increase.

According to a delegate, the agreement (in principle) calls for a nominal 1m b/d production hike. Again, that’s in nominal terms and in line with reports from earlier this week, the actual increase will amount to something on the order of 600k b/d.

That would entail a return to 100% compliance with production quotas – again, that sounds like it’s in line with some of the previous reporting.

The news comes after a tense day of talks on Thursday and some conciliatory remarks (or what counts as “conciliatory” in this context) from Zanganeh on Friday following a heart-to-heart with Al-Falih.

The figure is lower than what the Russians were aiming for and I guess this is some semblance of bullish, all things considered.

The question now is how long it will take for noted commodities strategist David Dennison to deliver his quick take on the deal.

Oh, and don’t forget that this usually doesn’t work when it comes to quickly arresting rising prices: