Defying critics, from the moment of the election, allowing for nominal pullbacks,  we've been steadfast about the S&P achieving the 2200 level and then some; of course with rising risk as it gets extended and/or especially with a potential spike or failure coming at OPEC. 

Trump is a game-changer and the market knows it. And seriously now knows it's for the better (with regard to the economy and jobs); as we've suggested would be the case since before the election. 

That included a suspicion of nearer-term recession (we already have it rear-view mirror, but that will change); allowing a market contraction at points in the first half of 2017 (that's still suspected; perhaps after we'll get 'hoorah' on proposals or legislative initiatives pending the inauguration).

But declines (barring exogenous 'black swan' events) will likely be less deep than would be the case if we continued to have lackluster reactive Federal governance, and a fully-gridlocked Congress. (Doesn't matter if anyone likes this leadership or not; or blames the Republicans for prior stonewalling. What matters is that they function and get things done 'for the people'; not for pet projects or bloating debt to lift financial assets.)

The market absorbed the Saudi (so far) decline to attend a new special 'NOPEC' (non-OPEC oil producers) meeting on Monday; threatening to abort production cuts 'unless' non-OPEC members agree to do so prior to the upcoming Wednesday Vienna main OPEC meeting. Since OPEC manipulated oil producing countries for decades, led by the primary oil aggressor (with higher or lower pricing controls) Saudi Arabia; there is no love lost by the non-OPEC members and no enthusiasm for inviting them there anyway (though apparently the olive branch was extended as it appears they were invited). 

The Saudi's would potentially use a 'non-OPEC' production-cut failure at Monday's meeting of producers like the U.S., UK, Russia, Norway, the Canadians and others, as an 'excuse' to 'accept' the reticence of other OPEC members to reduce production. In essence; the Saudi aggressor trying to blame victims of the cartel's decades of manipulative practices.

In sum, the trend continues higher as projected. I've warned the first significant exhaustion of the 'Trump Bump' would follow public grasping of the 'game-changing' nature of everything with this election or at least the perception of what's possible; and that matters to the markets.

I've also focused on oil and the US dollar. The dollar becomes more of a headwind for multinational earnings (we know; offset by enthusiasm of America's domestic resurgence 'hopes' so far) while  oil so far isn't able to stymie the S&P, due to an 'absence of offers' going into the weekend. 

The retail insanity has blossomed more than it would in this moribund economy; because the economy is suddenly less moribund, with the spirits of America rekindled. Amazon reports initial 'Black Friday' hours exceed both the same period last year and apparently cyber-Monday (how they contrast Monday, which isn't hear yet, isn't clear). However it is clear that inside business there is a huge sigh of relief and while the market is getting into the silly-zone of upside; the bias remains higher. 
 

I suspect many folks who thought the market would go lower on Trump or voted otherwise (if they voted), are reflecting on this and hoping that things really do improve. They already are; just think of the leverage a President can bring-to-bear on a United Technologies to keep Carrier in Indianapolis. All it takes is the threat to put a 'sharper pencil' to military contracts of their Pratt & Whitney unit. Sure one can argue not meddling in business; but please, Government has done that forever; with a less noticed way of tax inducements and expansion or contract modification.   

Conclusion

The market can get ahead of itself but isn't there yet. While there was no opportunity to buy the lows, other than at 3 am on Election night like Carl Icahn did, the trend remains consistently higher as called for. And we think bearish efforts to argue to the contrary are premature.

Weekend (Friday final) MarketCast 
 Friday morning (intraday + overview) MarketCast