Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action at $3,870.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time today.

Long Trades

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,886 or $3,338.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trades

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $4,055 or $4,374.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that the price now was hard to call: it is medium and long-term bearish but over the short-term seemed to be close to making a bullish term. The key things to watch out for were whether the medium-term trend line shown in the chart below held, and also whether the support at $3,870 held. I would be bearish if the price trades below that latter level for a couple of hours. It did so, then traded as low as $3,750 before rising sharply, so this wasn’t a bad forecast.

The technical situation has not changed much: there is new support at $3,886 but the picture is still long and medium-term bearish. The descending trend line shown in the price chart below is quite confluent with the horizontal resistance at $4,055 so this might produce a key bearish turn if reached. I would be bearish if there is a reversal up there, or if the price can trade strongly below $3,886 for a couple of hours later.

(Click on image to enlarge)

There is nothing important due today concerning the USD.