Last Thursday’s signals produced a profitable short trade following the bearish engulfing candlestick structure which rejected the resistance level at $4,374.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades must be entered between 8am London time and 5pm Tokyo time today.

Long Trades

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,870 or $3,338.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trades

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $4,055 or $4,374.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Thursday that the action looked quite bullish, but the price would need to trade above the key resistance at $4,374. I was ready to take a bullish bias above that level. This wasn’t a bad call as the level has produced the high price ever since, so it was the key pivotal level of the day.

The price now is hard to call: it is medium and long-term bearish but over the short-term seems to be close to making a bullish term. The key things to watch out for are whether the medium-term trend line shown in the chart below holds, and also whether the support at $3,870 holds. I would be bearish if the price trades below that latter level for a couple of hours.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time.