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Lucid Lost $227,000 Per Car Sold In Q3
Andrew Armstrong 11/15/2023 9:59:26 AM

Progress. #1

Will Chamath Finally Do A Deal For His IPOF SPAC? (19 Months Later)
Michael Levin 6/6/2022 10:03:46 PM

Remember, Grand Slams also come with strikeouts with the bases loaded. For me to list them all would be to tout that this one will be one of them. That said, for the helluvit the one I loved the most was $AIMT. They had a peanut allergy drug that the FDA approved and the stock was around $31-35 the day it happened. Nestle stepped up and bought 20% of the Co. for $31 in early 2020. Covid hit and many stocks got crushed and stayed there. Later in August the EU put out a report on how good the drug was as well as earlier in the Summer the FDA struck down a competitors drug attempt at peanut allergies. I said to myself "Here is $AIMT at $12.90 (Fri Aug 28th) and with no more potential competition as well as EU "loving" this drug, Nestle has got to step up and buy the rest of this Co." and I bought the Sep $15 calls for $.25  That Monday Nestle bought them out for $32.40 or so and I sold those calls for $19.10 roughly 71:1 payoff. I was shocked that I bought these calls on a Fri on a whim and the next trading day $AIMT was the #1 stock in the world for % gain. True story. I have MANY stories of the opposite as well, where I lost All, so these things do NOT happen often.  Best of luck.

Will Chamath Finally Do A Deal For His IPOF SPAC? (19 Months Later)
Walken Talken 6/3/2022 6:16:47 PM

Remember, Grand Slams also come with strikeouts with the bases loaded. For me to list them all would be to tout that this one will be one of them. That said, for the helluvit the one I loved the most was $AIMT. They had a peanut allergy drug that the FDA approved and the stock was around $31-35 the day it happened. Nestle stepped up and bought 20% of the Co. for $31 in early 2020. Covid hit and many stocks got crushed and stayed there. Later in August the EU put out a report on how good the drug was as well as earlier in the Summer the FDA struck down a competitors drug attempt at peanut allergies. I said to myself "Here is $AIMT at $12.90 (Fri Aug 28th) and with no more potential competition as well as EU "loving" this drug, Nestle has got to step up and buy the rest of this Co." and I bought the Sep $15 calls for $.25  That Monday Nestle bought them out for $32.40 or so and I sold those calls for $19.10 roughly 71:1 payoff  I was shocked that I bought these calls on a Fri on a whim and the next trading day $AIMT was the #1 stock in the world for % gain. True story. I have MANY stories of the opposite as well, where I lost All, so these things do NOT happen often.  Best of luck

Tesla Finally Receives Conditional Permit To Start Building Its German Gigafactory
Roland Murphy 3/7/2022 1:47:39 AM

There’s no such a thing “conditional permit” “A Building Permit” #1 “Operation Permit “ #2 Tesla was granted finally -after 2yrs #1 “ Approval of having such factory building in Germany 🇩🇪 “ 400 items now needed to satisfy #2 (classic items) so they can start production and Tesla promised will meet these requirements in 2 weeks by then 1st delivery of Model Y will be granted - Ceremony.

Market Briefing For Wednesday, July 28
William K. 7/29/2021 11:03:08 AM

Interesting. Now consider that wearing masks has been done in some Chinese areas for many years. I recall the photos of commuters wearing masks in Hong Kong from back when I was in high school. And masks are much less an impingement on freedoms than closures are. IF masks had been mandated at day #1 possibly the plague would not have done nearly as much damage a it has done. Obvious in hindsight, not so obvious at the time. Of course the whole mask "thing" was new to much of the world at the start, and not many were available. But probably masking from day one would have changed a lot.

Bull Quiet versus Trend Fragility
Dick Kaplan 7/12/2021 6:29:20 PM

Interesting charts and interesting ideas but chart #1: NQ_F ) is labeled as indicating a "Bull Volatile Regime" which is said to "mark major tops." Is it reasonable to expect to see a decline from the "major top"? I don't see any significant decline.

(This website allows for the display of larger charts, but your charts aren't any larger in their "larger" display mode than in the default mode, and the text on the X axis of the charts {showing the dates on the time line} is VERY small and difficult to see...)

Did Buffett Just Bet Against The US? Berkshire Buys Barrick Gold, Dumps Goldman
Dave Schneider 8/16/2020 8:48:58 PM

Wait until #Buffett's next disclosure. He buys a small stake before the reporting period ends and then loads up afterwards knowing people will pile in. Of course he owns #Apple. He's all for slave factories, turning people into socially inept zombies, tracking and controlling people, and destroying the social fabric of society. He's America's #1 hypocrite.

Trump's Payroll Tax Cut And The Arrogance Of "Find Something New"
Dick Kaplan 7/19/2020 5:25:20 PM

Mish, I love your articles and greatly respect your opinions. You are completely right on point #1. But there's nothing wrong with taking this opportunity to "find something new." I know many people who often had wanted to learn new skills - programming skills, graphic design, a new language, trying to be published, learning to play a musical instrument, mastering a new piece of software etc. but never had the time to do so.

Of course not all of these would lead to paycheck down the line, but with so many being stuck at home, unable to work, but financially secure due to unemployment, it is a great time to learn new schools, many of which can be learned online.

Trump Is Playing With Fire; Coronavirus Update
Moon Kil Woong 3/4/2020 7:28:05 AM

#1 Anyone who knows about this knows that a magical cure is far off if not impossible. The companies working on a cure for SARS have been working on it for years and it is just as unlikely to work on this as it did for SARS. For one thing, this disease is not like other things we have a vaccine for. Those infected get it and can often recognize it and start fighting it. The issue is it takes time to fight it like the flu and fighting it can wear out your immune system leaving you open to other diseases that can make your life more perilous just like the flu can in people with weakened immune systems. You can help a body recognize it faster, but it is far from a cure, Flu shots don't get rid of the flu.

#2 Without comprehensive medical care and low cost screening, it is hard to combat this. Especially if the cost is high. Even if tests were free, people will not want to get tested given they will be quarantined if they are found having the Corona virus. Last. with the slow response in the US each state has a few hundred tests at most as of Friday last week. This is not enough to deal with any major outbreak. The fact that Hawaii was denied kits and denied ordering kits that worked from Japan when the US kits weren't ready is proof enough that we got caught with our pants down.

#3 They have cases of unidentified carriers. Apparently this disease has 2 good things going for it. It takes a while before it makes patients symptomatic allowing it to spread silently undetected for weeks. And second, it appears to be able to in fact people who can still transmit the disease without any visible signs to the the carrier. There is rumors that it can and has spread to dogs and other animals but so far that is not proven. If it spreads to birds it will become as uncontained and unpredictable as the flu.

#4 It is rumored that a cure will take 2 years or more to make. Given the mutation of this is rapid, any "cure" will likely be ineffective even if it did work before by the time it got out. Some virologists say that a cure is ridiculous in the first place for the same reason we can't cure the common flu. Rapid mutation is a common feature of such a disease.

#5 We are fortunate this will likely slow down like the flu as the warm weather gets underway because it is heat sensitive. It also doesn't appear to survive well exposed to the air so it will not last a long term sitting on surfaces outside the body. And given we don't know the full infection rate since we are only catching those getting symptoms, it is not as deadly as it is portrayed.

Taking this all into account, the Federal Reserve can not stimulate growth and purchasing with a rate cut, nor can government stimulus. What we really need is a trusting and competent person presumably in government to present the case and allay fears, coordinate a competent response, and help prevent the worsening of this rapidly. The fact our President can't be that person and has been saying things contrary to the facts doesn't calm anyone. I think this is what people are talking about the most.

We will see if he finally approves spending a fraction of the money allocated to fight this to give free testing to those who need to be tested and allow broader testing even if it shows how many more people are affected in the US. Closing the border is not an effective way to combat this now. It is already spreading in the US with inadequate testing and an inadequate response to the global pandemic it is. That said, it is not as bad as it could be if things are dealt with correctly from here on out.

GreenTree Hospitality Group: Value Is In The Details
Will Master 9/11/2019 4:15:34 PM

This is a domestic player within China, not a global player. They're less exposed to cross-border risk compared to say semi-conductors, or many large global players. Who knows how the cards shake out, and if anything I feel like it is a good hedge against a larger global or US centric portfolio. They're may be some currency risk on the exchange rate, or risk if the gov't decides to somehow impact corp governance, but I feel there is plenty of upside as well. I also think Trump is too focused on the economy (seems to be his #1 priority) to push the trade war too far - he is just negotiating.

Meng's Arrest Vs. The Rule Of Law
Adam Reynolds 12/8/2018 9:59:59 PM

Isn't is possible that the man is actually guilty of money transfers to Iran? You haven't even heard any of the evidence. It's a bit ridiculous to jump the assumption that America is afraid of competition and that's the real reason. They haven't gone after Samsung which is ranked #1. Nor is it likely that the loss of a single employee will have any negative impact on Huawei.

Earnings Estimates Coming Down
Moon Kil Woong 11/7/2018 5:58:10 AM

#1 this is expected. Every quarter there can't be a stimulus package. Also, I think it is good because growth at the level we've seen shouldn't be expected and the Federal Reserve would likely end up having to raise rates if it continued. So lower rates and rational expectations are not a bad thing. I think the market has already taken lower growth next year into account. I'm always more concerned about bad analysts setting wrong expectations and the market punishing the companies for it.

Thus Begins The End Of The All-Powerful U.S. Economy
Moon Kil Woong 10/22/2018 7:14:13 AM

China has always been a super power. That is why they had nukes and veto power at the UN. The issue is China is becoming more confrontational militarily and politically. Certainly their hostility is most obvious over Taiwan and naval routes to Southeast Asia. In reality this helps the US, because if they want to be a global power they need Asia to support them or at least not be hostile to them. Likewise, their refusal to open their currency to free trade helped them in the past when they tried to devalue and is now hurting them as they watch their currency devalue and can't do anything about it. This prevents them integrating into the global banking market and hurts their desire to be a global currency and banking powerhouse.

China has a lot of problems moving up the value chain created by their clinging onto old habits. Their censorship prevents creativity. Their lack of allowing freedom of religion and general freedom not only binds their citizens but hurts their ability to command moral high ground in most things. Their protectiveness leads to a slow inevitable decline rather than hope for any new avenues for natural growth up the value chain.

That said, their people are very dedicated and efficient and they make slow progress. It's the government more than anything else that is slowing down the process of their country becoming greater than it is today.

As for the US, protectionism has never led a country into a greater position globally which is why what is happening now is signalling a stall in US global domination. Free trade and free markets helped the US into markets across the world and stalled inflation in the US for decades despite its deficit spending. What comes next is anyone's guess. The general consensus is that after Trump some other president will pull the US back onto the rails that propelled it to the #1 stature it has held for decades. Yes, the US has always been great and the US economy has been the envy of the world thanks to free markets and allies with Asia including China, North America including Canada and Mexico, the Middle East including Saudi Arabia, and all of Europe. Let us hope this continues for the world's sake as well as America's.

You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet
Moon Kil Woong 10/7/2018 11:59:27 PM

#1 I think that right now tariffs are seen by the administration as a way to help the budget deficit, however, a poor one as many have pointed out. In reality, to plug the gap from the tax cuts they need to look at real cuts in government spending. #2 There is some concern about making China as the bad player in this trade war, however, it is already too apparent that the US is the one calling the shots. Also China is expanding, not contracting its global footprint which is a concern to US competitiveness. Also, as many have pointed out, China's manufacturing is under long term decline anyways as SE Asia is more cost competitive and will be more able to deal with manufacturing as time goes on like Japan was vs. the US in the past, then Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Korea was to Japan in the past, and China was to Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Korea. Now Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia are the treats to China and is why China is getting so aggressive in the Pacific Ocean. The US is a symptom of a wider problem for China and the US fighting vs. China over manufacturing is like fighting the last manufacturing war instead of looking at the future global battleground. It is diverting attention to the wrong issue. The issue is the constant manufacturing movement to the lowest cost labor with the lowest environmental laws. To counter this, automation will help, as well as global regulations on environmental manufacturing. #3 The last scary issue is China is quickly realizing its need to move to a higher end economy and is producing more and more patents and innovation. China does need to protect patents better for its own future sake. This will happen naturally. Also China needs to open up its freedom of information to enable creativity and a more global landscape, however, Facebook incidents and Russian hacking have shown even the US the potential for misuse. There needs to be discussion on this topic, however, government information control ends up hurting China's economy in the long run by it stymieing global competitiveness and creativity. #4 The lack of China allowing for the free trade of its currency also hurts its potential to be a global financial leader. It is making small advances on this. Right now China is trying to keep its currency up, not push it down. This is at contradiction to claims its playing currency manipulation games and most people realize this. Once again, helping China be open to free currency helps China more than it hurts it. #5 Last, demonizing China isn't that good if you plan on running a continuing deficit and depend on it for so much trade that obviously America wants even with trade tariffs. To move forward on this is a bit silly given Americans will realize quite rapidly how much they depend on China to keep their standard of living. The US essentially has been exporting not only its deficits but also its inflation. If the US stops imports it will quickly realize how much inflation its deficit spending really causes and it will become frightening rapidly. Republicans by and large realize our trading partners are partners and not enemies. Let us hope clearer minds will prevail for our sake.

Palo Alto Networks FQ3: Reiterating The Long Thesis On Game-Changing Developments
Investment Works 6/12/2018 11:44:54 AM

Thanks for the comment, David.

In terms of market share, they are already #1 in revenue. Based on reported growth rates, they overtook Cisco security earlier this year.

In terms of platform leadership, CheckPoint, Cisco, Fortinet will of course argue theirs is the best offering. But billing trends are saying loudly that customers are choosing Palo Alto and Fortinet. Of the two, we believe Palo Alto has the most complete platform.

US Core Inflation Stuck At 1.7% Again – USD Falls Across The Board
Moon Kil Woong 10/13/2017 3:37:14 PM

The only way inflation picks up is commodity inflation for basic things which is not good, its bad. That is because the other ways inflation picks up are dead in the water. These are 1) People making more and spending more and/or more people making more which is not happening. 2) People borrowing more which is hard to do without #1 and isn't happening 3) The government spending more or taking less which is rumored but hasn't happened and 4) events that cause natural shortages and price run ups (fortunately none big enough to cause mass inflation across the board has happened) and 5) Some Federal Reserve insanity which I think the Federal Reserve is already up to its eyeballs with QE.

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