In which I accept my own challenge: (http://theylaughedatnoah.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/eu-gb-writing-challenge.html):
From “The War In The North” by Prof. Noah Williams, Monash University Publishing (2nd edn, 2042)
"…The background to the conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean was as complex as in the years leading up to WWI, and as full of dangerously tempting opportunities for lower order players. Over a long time, Turkey’s President Yildiz pitted greater Powers against each other with all the wiliness, and considerably greater resources, than Malta’s Dom Mintoff in the 1950s. For Turkey stood over the crossroads of history.
Following the destruction of the Highland Regiments at Dnipro[i] (the first moment when the use of battlefield nuclear weapons was seriously contemplated), Europa resiled from its policy of progressive eastward enlargement and the Ukraine was finally allowed to split into West Ukraine and Donbass, largely along the linguistic and racial outlines that had long existed.
It seemed as though an uneasy but mutually beneficial balance had been achieved. The abandonment of imperial ambitions in Ukraine allowed Europa to redirect its attention southwards to the African littoral, and Moscow’s now-heavy protection around the Soyuz and Blue Stream pipelines in Donbass was not only a safeguard for Russian economic interests but also insurance for Europan consumers against terrorist disruption to their energy consumption.
However, the Odessa Treaty also tightened the Russian hold on the Crimea and the eastern end of the Black Sea. To the infrastructure built up at Sochi under the cover of preparations for the 2014 Winter Olympics had been added similar developments further up the coast at Novorossiisk and Anapa, while under another pretext (guarding the projected South Stream Pipeline, a project that was never definitively cancelled but remained on the back burner) the port at Sevastopol had also enjoyed considerable improvement. The surreptitious nuclear hardening of certain underground buildings at all four sites had been carefully noted by the West, but without public comment.