Norman Mogil | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Consulting Economist
I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades ...more

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The Canadian Federal Budget And Its Impact On Debt Markets
Participants in the Canadian debt market do not anticipate any change in Canada’s AAA-rating. Additional supply will not affect yields.
Suppose We Never Get Back To 2% Inflation Rate
Economic growth is far from solid and any further hike in rates will mostly kill growth without any assurance that inflation will tumble. 
Canada Is Now Experiencing A Hard Landing
Evidence is piling up that the Bank of Canada is not able to engineer the vaulted soft landing after a brutal series of rate hikes.
The Great Canadian Debate Is Underway Why Productivity Is So Poor
To say that the financial markets in Canada, bank lending and equity markets, are denying the private sector capital is without foundation.
The Choice Of Inflation Measure Depends On The Eye Of The Beholder
No matter how one slices it, the rate of inflation has come down dramatically in rather short order.
It Is The End Of An Era For Negative Interest Rates
​​​​​​​The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate for the first time in 17 years today, as the last central bank to exit from a regime of negative interest rates.
Central Banks Don’t Like To Told When To Cut Rates
Central bankers rarely accept any direction from outsiders, even if the markets are behaving as if the central bank were not calling the shots.
Growth Of The Public Sector Keeps The Canadian Economy Above Water
Economists at the major Canadian banks are searching high and low to find some positive news coming out of today’s GDP report for 2023 Q4.
Canadian Recession Is Well Underway According To The Big Bank
It is hard not to conclude that a Canadian recession is underway given in the nature of the disappointing quarterly results of the Big Six banks.
Does Canada Have A Productivity Problem?
As the Canadian economy continues to remain sluggish, we should not get our hopes up for a reversal in the productivity numbers this year.  
Interpreting Canadian Job Numbers Is In The Eye Of The Beholder
The beauty in making sense of job numbers is that it is open to much interpretation. Is the glass half full or half empty, surely applies to Canadian data released today.
Why Did The Canadian Federal Government Deficit Increased Dramatically In 2023 And Does It Matter
Given that the government is already spending beyond its revenues, an economic revival can only be generated by the Bank of Canada's interest rate cuts.
The Great Debate In Canada On How Much Immigration Is Needed
Immigration issues are becoming front and center in the Canadian political environment, as Canada is expected to welcome as many as 500,000 immigrants in 2024.
What Happens If The Inflation Rate Never Gets Back To 2 Percent?
The Western democracies seem to be settling in at inflation rates around 3 + %, having come down dramatically from peaks of 9-10 % in 2021-22.
The Bank Of Canada Needs To Change Horses
The Canadian job market is no longer a source of economic growth. Full-time jobs fell by 23,500 while part-time jobs climbed by 23,600 in December.
The Bank Of Canada Lives In A World Of Denial
The most recent Fed decision unmistakably signaled that rate cuts are clearly planned for 2024, putting all central bankers on notice it is time to switch gears.
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