Now that we have the US Presidential race pretty well set (assuming there is no surprise on the Democratic side for any reason), I will be watching for what I think is the most important event (or non event) that no one will in the media be talking about at all unless it happens.
Of course I am talking about whether or not another major financial crisis unfolds before the election this year. I am not talking about just a normal recession. I am talking about another major crisis worse than the 2008 crisis that could actually disrupt the banking system and/or markets for a period of time. A crisis that creates genuine fear among the general public. It's not out of the question as I have documented a long list of warnings about systemic risk to the global financial system by both the IMF and the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) on my blog.
The assumption in place right now by virtually everyone is that no such crisis will happen this year before the November election. If that is correct, then I would assume this election will play out much like everyone expects with a wild and unpredictable race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. I would think that no crisis would favor Hillary Clinton and also favor the GOP retaining the US House of Representatives. The Senate might be more in play.
A pre-election major crisis could change everything though. It could discredit the Obama Administration and likely drag Hillary Clinton down as well (assuming the email issue does not). Since Donald Trump is already on record as predicting that we have a major economic bubble that will burst, I would expect him to use that to full advantage in positioning himself to the public as "the only one who could save the day." I would expect him to launch a full attack not only on the Obama Administration (and by extension Hillary Clinton), but also the US Federal Reserve. He would likely put blame on the Fed for creating an "asset bubble" in the markets with the easy monetary policies used after the 2008 crisis. I would expect him to say the Obama Administration supported Fed policy to make the economy look better than it was and fool the public.