Gary Tanashian Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
NFTRH & Biiwii's Unique Market Perspectives

Gary Tanashian of nftrh.com and biiwii.com successfully owned and operated a progressive medical component manufacturing company for 21 years, keeping the company’s fundamentals in alignment with global economic ... more

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EC Semiconductor Canaries: Chirp, Warble ... Soon A Croak And Silence?
The canary is no longer chirping in a healthy manner and the economy’s coal mine has a toxic gas leak.
Still Only 1 Of 3 Macro Amigos To Destination
Inversion or lack thereof is more an arbitrary signal that the financial media fetishize over. It is the direction of the curve and the macro signals implied that matter.
Macro Changes For Gold And Stocks
Gold vs. Stock Markets has been stair-stepping higher throughout 2018 so far. That is positive, although the major trend is still down.
A Gold Sector Fundamental View
Gold is knocking on the door of major resistance and it has been doing so for months.
Inflation, With A Shelf Life
The ‘inflation trade’ (IT) popped last week and that included cyclical metals (as well as silver) ramming upward vs. gold and TIP rising vs. TLT & IEF.
As The Macro Turns…
The yield curve continues to flatten and one day when it stops flattening and starts steepening systemic stress under pains of deflationary contraction, inflationary excess or some bizarre global mix of the two will be indicated.
"Trade War"
The Trump-China trade war issue is a fundamental event taking place outside of Keynesianism and the all-controlling grip of US and global Central Banks.
Bonds, Inflation & Amigos
I’d like to put the bond segment right after the US stock segment because bonds/yields are so important to sector selections in stocks.
3 Amigos Of The Macro, Updated
With the yields at our targets, which were established for a reason (being caution) and with the financial eggheads fully in unison, it has come time for caution on the bond bear stance and at least some aspects of a stock bull stance.
Bonds And Related Market Indicators
There is certainly reason to believe that global debt is out of control, never to be reeled back in but rather, inflated away. But the 2yr is a borderline cash alternative, a contrary setup is taking shape.
Semi-Bearish?
Manufacturing activity was fine in January as New Orders eased a bit and PMI barely budged. However, the ‘inflation effects’ component, prices, lurched higher. At the same time Employment eased more than just a teeny.
Macro Update: 1 Week Later, Risk Remains ‘On’ As 2 Of 3 Amigos Ride On
Despite a tough week for stocks into Friday, February 9, three big picture macro indicators have continued to support a risk ‘on’ backdrop. Many of the shorter-term indicators, like junk bond ratios and the Palladium/Gold ratio say the same thing.
US Stock Market, Precious Metals And The Macro Backdrop
The real story of this chart, showing the rest of the sorry post-bubble history from the 2011 chart, is an extended bear market, sharp upturn in 2016 and what seems like a forever consolidation of that upturn. I can assure you it will not be forever.
Amigo #2 (10yr Yield) Nears Target, ‘Inflation Trade’ Failing, Gold Sector Shaking Off Inflation Bugs
The Dow just shaved off 665 points and Treasury bonds are becoming more attractive vs. the S&P 500’s dividend yield… right at a time when EVERYBODY hates bonds.
Economy And Inflation: Playing It Straight
Manufacturing activity was fine in January as New Orders eased a bit and PMI barely budged. However, the ‘inflation effects’ component, prices, lurched higher.
A Few Words On The Gold Sector
The miners can go a long way as inflationist bugs tout gold, silver, oil, copper and resources of all kinds. But the other stuff is cyclical and the best case for gold mining is counter-cyclical.
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