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Gary Tanashian of and successfully owned and operated a progressive medical component manufacturing company for 21 years, keeping the company’s fundamentals in alignment with global economic ... more

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Bonds, Inflation & Amigos
I’d like to put the bond segment right after the US stock segment because bonds/yields are so important to sector selections in stocks.
3 Amigos Of The Macro, Updated
With the yields at our targets, which were established for a reason (being caution) and with the financial eggheads fully in unison, it has come time for caution on the bond bear stance and at least some aspects of a stock bull stance.
Bonds And Related Market Indicators
There is certainly reason to believe that global debt is out of control, never to be reeled back in but rather, inflated away. But the 2yr is a borderline cash alternative, a contrary setup is taking shape.
Manufacturing activity was fine in January as New Orders eased a bit and PMI barely budged. However, the ‘inflation effects’ component, prices, lurched higher. At the same time Employment eased more than just a teeny.
Macro Update: 1 Week Later, Risk Remains ‘On’ As 2 Of 3 Amigos Ride On
Despite a tough week for stocks into Friday, February 9, three big picture macro indicators have continued to support a risk ‘on’ backdrop. Many of the shorter-term indicators, like junk bond ratios and the Palladium/Gold ratio say the same thing.
US Stock Market, Precious Metals And The Macro Backdrop
The real story of this chart, showing the rest of the sorry post-bubble history from the 2011 chart, is an extended bear market, sharp upturn in 2016 and what seems like a forever consolidation of that upturn. I can assure you it will not be forever.
Amigo #2 (10yr Yield) Nears Target, ‘Inflation Trade’ Failing, Gold Sector Shaking Off Inflation Bugs
The Dow just shaved off 665 points and Treasury bonds are becoming more attractive vs. the S&P 500’s dividend yield… right at a time when EVERYBODY hates bonds.
Economy And Inflation: Playing It Straight
Manufacturing activity was fine in January as New Orders eased a bit and PMI barely budged. However, the ‘inflation effects’ component, prices, lurched higher.
A Few Words On The Gold Sector
The miners can go a long way as inflationist bugs tout gold, silver, oil, copper and resources of all kinds. But the other stuff is cyclical and the best case for gold mining is counter-cyclical.
The Macro View: Amigos Ride On
The macro backdrop is riding on to its destiny. That forward destiny is a top in stocks vs. gold (Amigo 1), a rise in long-term interest rates to potential if not probable limits (Amigo 2), and an end to the yield curve’s flattening trend (Amigo 3).
Gold Miners’ Status Updated
Everybody got aboard back then and it happened with too much force and momentum… and it happened amid badly deteriorating fundamentals.
Semi Canary Still Chirping, But He’s Gonna Croak In 2018
World semiconductor equipment shipment growth was a very robust +26 percent (3-month basis) in October but down from its +63 percent peak in February.
Ever Been Part Of A Melt-Up?
At the time of the Q4 cycle forecast however, we noted that a roll over into a significant correction (at least) could actually be healthy for the market’s overall long-term bull.
Big Picture Update On Commodities & Precious Metals
Some monthly charts of interest in the commodity sector, including precious metals.
Amid Bad Fundamentals, Gold Sector Rally May Have Begun
We have been expecting a seasonal rally in gold, silver and the miners off of a bottom due in either December or January, as is typical of the sector.
Three Amigos Update
The 3 Amigos of the Macro ride on. The ‘Stocks vs. Gold’ and Yield Curve Amigos look the most like shoe-ins to make their destinations. As long as they are in transit all is fine. But when the limits are reached it will be time to anticipate change.
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