Ivan Kitov Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Lead Researcher at Institute for the Geospheres' Dynamics, Russian Academy of Sciences
Contributor's Links: Economics as Classical Mechanics

I am a Doctor of Physics and Mathematics, Lead Researcher at the Institute for the Geospheres' Dynamics, Russian Academy of Sciences. Founding member of the Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.

Published three monographs in economics and finances:

Deterministic ... more

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Latest Posts
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On Decreasing Rate Of Economic Growth In The USA
There are numerous plots demonstrating the decelerating rate of real economic growth in developed countries. The long-term component of real GDP increase is very simple.
Recession May Hit New Zealand In 2017; But At A Five-Year Horizon, Real Economic Growth Is About 2% Per Year
As predicted in 2009, in the next few years the growth rate will be increasing, except a deep fall in 2017, as we also expect in the USA.
As We Predicted In 2010, A Longer Deflation Period Has Started In Australia
The Australian economy is in the beginning of a long deflation period with an elevated unemployment. The reason behind these processes is the same as in Japan – falling labor force.
In The Long Run, The Rate Of Unemployment In Canada Will Be Growing. A Four Year Update
This is a four-year update for Canada. The model prediction is getting better and better!
The Okun's Integral Law For Australia Revisited
The rate of unemployment depends on the cumulative change in real GDP per capita, as relationship implies. To reduce the rate of unemployment in Australia, the rate of GDP (real per capita) growth must be above 1.7% per year.
In 2008, We Accurately Predicted The Evolution Of The Unemployment Rate In Italy
The unemployment rate in 2015 was 12.0%. For 2016, the rate was 11.6%.
Have A Happy 2017 Recession
Is this going to be a year of recession?
Food Will Be Getting Cheaper During The Next Decade
For an investor dealing with commodities, the index of food, which is growing at a rate lower than the core CPI, is an important reference for any action.
Oil Will Not Rise During The Next 15 Years
The oil trend is now positive and is likely approaching the mid-point of the linear segment.
The Price Of Steel And Iron Will Be Falling, But Not Long
The overall trend is still positive, i.e. the price of iron and steel falls faster than the overall PPI.
Copper Price May Fall Deeper And Aluminum Is Close To The Bottom
We have to admit that there are no sustainable trends in the copper index and the future of the copper ores index cannot be predicted at a ten-year horizon.
Illustration Of Falling Economic Growth In Developed Countries
Analysis of GDP per capita in developed countries and BRIC. Many developed countries demonstrate poor performance.
Modeling Economic Success Of Poland And Failure In Russia And Ukraine. The 2015 Model Revision
Poland is likely the best performer between the former socialist countries. Poland fully uses its growth potential – real GDP per capita grows at a rate of 3% per year since 1991.
Income And Gender
The male and female curves intersect at $14,000 in 1986 and at $30,000 in 2014 and then the male curve deviates further and further from the female curve. The male-female difference has been likely decreasing with time.
The Pareto Distribution Of Top Incomes
For personal incomes, the point of transition is equivalent to some threshold, which separates sub- and super-critical regimes of income distribution...
The Income Critical Age
When predicting incomes, we use the entire population. One could claim that there exists a strong external process, which forces the exponential fall on top of the grown related to the original capacity to earn money.
1 to 16 of 26 Posts
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