David Kotok | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors
Contributor's Links: Cumberland Advisors
David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts ...more

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October Consumer Prices - Better, But Not Good
The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4 percent, while the core rate (removing the volatile food and energy components) increased by 0.3 percent.
Inflation – What Does It Look Like?
To many, inflation means a steady and continuous increase in prices.
The Bond Market’s “Return To Normalcy”
As we reach higher levels of vaccinations, with three vaccines now available and possibly more coming, the markets have started returning to normal.
Who Is Unemployed
Friday’s release of the February employment report by BLS showed that the economy created 379,000 jobs in February, compared with 166,000 jobs in January.
Japan’s Steady Performance To Continue
The BOJ intends to maintain its policy objective to keep borrowing costs low to support the economy.
COVID Shock & The Fed
This is not a “normal” recovery cycle, so using normal indicators may be a trap.
Real Interest Rates And Fed
Low-interest rates are likely to be with us for a while, and very low or negative real rates are here as well.
Recent Moves In Inflation Expectations And The Implications For Fed Policy
Recent movements in inflation expectations, as measured by the 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates show a marked acceleration that has interesting implications for Fed policy in the coming months.
Jobs: Pandemic Is Still Having A Significant Negative Impact On Economic Activity
Progress in 2021 on one leg of the FOMC’s dual mandate, the jobs situation, has started to be revealed with the release of 5 weeks of data on new unemployment claims for January and the BLS January CES jobs numbers.
The Long Strange Trip Of The Muni Market In 2020
The bond fund outflows of March followed the downdraft in oil prices caused by the onset of the pandemic, which caused the sharp sell-off in the stock market.
International Equities At Year-End 2020 & The Promise Ahead
In May, the spread of infection lessened in many economies, lockdowns were largely ended, and restrictions eased. Equity markets started a strong recovery, and global economic growth bounced back, but not enough to counter the earlier decline.
Fed: Data-Driven?
Core PCE has emerged as the most important inflation measure, as it is likely to have a stronger influence on the Fed’s policy decisions than other inflation measures.
The December FOMC
Chairman Powell’s press conference was very interesting, for three reasons.
Fed Vacancies – The Dilemma
As the Biden administration begins to float the names of potential cabinet members, an interesting scenario and potential dilemma faces the Federal Reserve Board.
Municipal Employment
The positive jobs growth news, showing an increase of 638,000 jobs in October and a full one percent reduction in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, masked a decline in government employment.
China Update – Ant Versus The State
Last week, the Ant Group was expected to list in Shanghai and Hong Kong the largest IPO in history. However, on Tuesday, November 3, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced it had postponed the company’s listing.
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