I am a professional trader with over 30 years experience. I have invested in commodities for over thirty years, and have seen several cycles. For the past decade I have mostly been out. Why? Because the prices were too high to go long. I did take some small short positions, but I am always wary of ...
more I am a professional trader with over 30 years experience. I have invested in commodities for over thirty years, and have seen several cycles. For the past decade I have mostly been out. Why? Because the prices were too high to go long. I did take some small short positions, but I am always wary of the unlimited upside risk.
That time is now over. Prices of many commodities are now cheap. How and when to invest in them is the subject of this blog.
less
Latest Comments
Regression To Trend: Another Look At Long-Term Market Performance - Tuesday, Oct. 2
Look, if you draw a trendline using all the data in the series, it's always going to look like a good fit. Trouble is, it tells you nothing about predictive ability. Suppose you were in 1945, the halfway point in your series. You could have drawn a pretty good trendline up till then. But it would have missed the second half of the series completely.
Be A Pig And Make It Big In Commodities
Interesting that Southern Copper / Grupo Mex (same owners) are the only ones increasing capex. Shows the power of being the low cost producer.