The Heisenberg Report | TalkMarkets | Page 79
Contributor's Links: The Heisenberg Report
Perhaps more than any other time in the last six decades, the fate of markets is inextricably intertwined with the ebb and flow of geopolitics. From the ECB's attempts to use the central bank's balance sheet to influence political outcomes across the eurozone to Saudi Arabia's efforts ...more

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One Analyst Says Earnings Season Puts US Stocks In “Dangerous Territory”
Global equity markets finished April strongly, inspired by a surging Eurozone now assuming a relatively benign outcome to the French election. MSCI World rose 1.9% last week, leaving the index up 1% over the month and 7.2% year-to-date.
Buy It All
It was a risk-on fest from the word “go” following the market-friendly outcome in the first round of the French elections and in the week ended April 26, equities saw the highest weekly inflow YTD at $17.60bn after a $0.51bn outflow a week earlier.
Fed’s Favorite Econ Indicator Slips As Monday’s Data Comes Up Short
The Fed will be watching key economic data carefully this week as they decide on the future of interest rate increases. Today's data includes: U.S. March Personal Income Rose 0.2%; and personal consumption remained unchanged.
Fed, Jobs, & France: Full Week Ahead Preview
This should be a big week. We’ll get the Fed, (but not really) and we’ll get NFP which could potentially be interesting in terms of econ signaling given the lackluster Q1 GDP read and last month’s epic miss.
Poof, It’s Gone! Specs Cover Treasury Short, Now Most Long 10Y Since 2008
On Friday, we got the latest CFTC positioning data (current, as usual, through Tuesday) and guess what? Specs flipped to their heaviest long TY position since 2008.
Was Q1 GDP “Grossly Distorted”?
We got the first read on Q1 GDP and it wasn’t great. In fact, the economy expanded at the slowest pace in three years and consumer spending, rose just 0.3%, the worst performance since 2009.
If You Buy The “ETF ETF,” You’re Dumb – Here’s Why
More than a dozen readers have written in asking for my opinion on TETF. It took me about 15 minutes to come up with a list of reasons why this is a terrible idea from an investment perspective. Let me just run through a few of them real fast.
Euro On Track For Best Week Since June After Inflation Hits ECB Target
EUR/USD jumped to a session high of 1.0947, up 0.7%.
"Don’t Believe The Hype": 2 Charts Suggest Central Banks Are Not All Powerful
Central bank liquidity from the ECB and the BoJ may not have that much of an effect on US yields after all.
Don’t Look Now, But Something Cracked On Tuesday
Well don’t look now, but we may have seen the first sign that things are rolling over because on Tuesday, the iShares EM local currency bond ETF, saw $82.6 million in outflows, the second biggest exodus on record.
How Long Can This Last? One Simple Reason To Favor Overseas Stocks Vs The S&P
It’s pile on time when it comes to Wall Street telling you why you should prefer pretty much any equity market in the world to US stocks.
One Analyst Compared US Stocks To European Stocks – Here’s What He Found
Now that the market got what it wanted (the heavily-favored Macron in the runoff), it’s worth asking if the bull thesis for eurozone stocks has become even more compelling.
Trading Trump’s Tax Plan: Buy … Euros?
A bit of early morning profit-taking (and subsequent broad dollar strength) notwithstanding, one strategist thinks the best way to play any risk-on event (including Trump’s tax proposal) is now the euro.
When Shorting Small-Caps Goes (Horribly) Wrong
The latest CFTC positioning data (out last Friday and current through last Tuesday) showed that specs (so basically, hedge funds) went all-in-er-er on bearish small-cap bets to levels last seen in September of 2014.
Want A Reason To "Sell In May"? Here’s One
While markets seem happy to ignore the impending budget showdown in the US, developments in China should remain a source of concern.
“Buyer Beware”: Trading VIX ETPs? You Probably Have No Idea What You’re Doing
What started as a (mostly) innocent attempt on our part to highlight the multiplying canaries in the ETF coal mine, has recently morphed into a veritable crusade.
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