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Contributor's Links: The Heisenberg Report

Perhaps more than any other time in the last six decades, the fate of markets is inextricably intertwined with the ebb and flow of geopolitics. From the ECB's attempts to use the central bank's balance sheet to influence political outcomes across the eurozone to Saudi Arabia's ... more

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All Eyez On 3
Well, it looks like it’s going to be all about 3% on 10s on Monday, or at least early on.
‘He’ll End Up Shooting Us In The Foot’: Trump’s $100 Billion Tariff Gamble Is Going To Cost You At The Cash Register
The problem for markets is if China loses patience with tariffs and does something that destabilizes global equities, it could ultimately tighten financial conditions and choke off growth.
More Buybacks For The Rich – And More Ding Dongs For The Rest Of You
A Friday evening note from Goldman underscores the ongoing tension regarding what corporations plan to do with their excess cash, some of which comes courtesy of Trump’s tax cuts.
Behold: An ‘Incubator For Vicious Steepeners’
The latter part of this week was interesting to the extent the resurgence of the inflation narrative seemed to be at least partially responsible for a (probably fleeting) reversal of the previously inexorable flattening of the curve.
Strategery
Things getting really interesting now, as 10Y yields are within shouting distance of 3% having moved quickly back to February highs and beyond (highest since 2014).
Digesting Friday’s Draghi, ECB Headlines
Although the ECB is gingerly tapering asset purchases, rate hikes are still a distant prospect and there’s still no guarantee that QE won’t be tapered further (to say, €10 billion/month) in September, before it’s wound down completely.
A Bit Of Confusion
Thursday was somewhat confusing if you’re one of those people who needs to ascribe causality at every turn, but generally speaking, it looks like the recent rally in commodities are stoking inflation fears.
Higher Yields Are Bad For Stocks Today And Maybe We Can Blame Commodities
Rising yields are bad again. This is one of those stories that depends on the narrative or, more to the point, how it’s packaged.
A Unified Theory Of Everything: From The Fed, To Volatility, To LIBOR To BTFD
Inflation pressures are likely to keep rising. An untested Powell is unlikely to change course on an untested balance sheet reduction policy. Macro volatility could thus keep rising as US interest rates normalize.
By 2023, America Will Be In Worse Fiscal Shape Than Italy, Mozambique And Burundi
You all know that America’s fiscal situation is deteriorating rapidly, right?
Truly Fine Gentlemen
Stocks were up again, with the Nasdaq pacing gains (Netflix was a big winner). S&P has now cleared 2,700 if you’re into round numbers.
Roasted Turkey: Lira, Stocks Dive As Erdogan Considers Calling Early “Elections”
Erdogan’s desire to keep juicing the economy is going to make it well nigh impossible for the central bank to get ahold of inflation and put the brakes on the FX spiral.
Trader: 'Investors Know Central Banks Are Just As Deeply Into These Trades As They Are'
First thing Monday morning, Donald Trump raised the specter of a currency war by accusing Russia and China of “playing games”.
Chinese Stocks Fall As Hong Kong Warns ‘Rising Rates Are Unavoidable’
Tough start to the week for Chinese shares. The Hang Seng fell 1.6% to start the week and H-shares were off by more than 2%:
Here Are The Biggest Risks Facing Tech
Obviously, regulatory risk has grabbed the spotlight in tech of late. Over the past month, we’ve seen what can go wrong with these companies.
Here Are The 3 Reasons Why Mario Draghi Should Worry
The notion that the Trump administration has adopted a weak dollar policy by proxy means that persistent euro strength could exacerbate any nascent weakness in the European economy.
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