Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 22
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Real Private GDP Accelerating
Real Trailing Twelve Mos GDP reported as now 3.2% and the Real Trailing Twelve Mos Private GDP 3.51%.
The Dollar And Oil
The past few days have added to the positives of extending the business cycle. Something to watch carefully to see how it all develops.
Oil Update - Wednesday, April 17
Low refinery inputs continue to lead to strong gasoline draws and only a minor reduction of US Crude Inventories leaving current US Crude levels ~15mil BBL above the 5yr move avg.
“Davidson” On Fastenal
Fastenal remains a good investment at current levels and a good general market price indicator. The long term growth of FAST has been 14% with the current dividend of 2.5%.
E&P Efficiency Index
The E&P Efficiency Index is an effort to capture the changes in technology and methods employed to lower extraction costs in the E&P sector.
A New Way To Measure E&P Activity?
Rig counts are typically viewed as the holy grail indicator for drilling activity.
Markets Do Not Repeat, They Don’t Even Rhyme
Understanding investment markets requires a historical perspective of past events. It is a combination of historical review of innovations, their associated human responses and subsequent pricing through market psychology.
Upgrades Based On Momentum, Not Fundamentals
Morgan Stanley's double upgrade on RPC Inc. shows that they waited for Momentum to build before analyst shifted rating-typical example how Wall Street has become permeated with short-term Momentum thinking.
The Economic Expansion Continues
The trends in employment and vehicle sales correlate to other economic indicator signals that the US economy continues to expand.
Oil Should Continue To Rise
US Crude Inventories rose by 10mil BBL on weak Refining Input causing a sharp draw on gasoline inventories, but oil prices are higher.
Golden Cross Vs Death Cross- Neither Has Fundamental Meanings
The fact is the SP500 is rising as fundamentals continue to convince investors that Dec 2018 swoon was a misperception of economic conditions.
S&P Intrinsic Value Update - Friday, March 29
The SP500 Value Investor Index (VII) for April is $2357. The SP500 priced at $2825 represents a 19.4% premium.
Manufacturing Employment Uptrend Continues
US Manufacturing employment has been in a decent uptrend since early 2017, but its history has not been a simple story.
Expect Crude Inventories To Drop Below 5yr. Avg
US Crude is higher because Refining Inputs fell. Refining input is unusually low but will recover.
Chemical Activity Barometer Turn Higher...
The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB) is a composite economic indicator. It is an indicator derived from data generated from all aspects of industrial, energy, import/export and consumer activity.
Recessions And Yield Curve
Recessions require a period of excess speculation such that we have a rise in defaults. Recent history shows that it is credit card debt which defaults first.
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