Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 21
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Refining Inputs Still Below Historical Averages
Refining input of 17mil BBL/Day while a little higher than last week is still ~1.2mil BBL/Day below what is est to be necessary to meet summer demand.
Employment Demand Reaches New High
Employment Demand posts new high on revised data for April 2019. Revisions are typical for much of economic data as late reports are added to the trends.
Why Markets Don’t “Predict”…Recession Fears Turn On A Dime
After price-trends corrected Jan 2018, then turned sharply lower in October 2018, advisors, repeated hourly by the media, recommended investors brace for a recession.
Housing And GDP
Dodd/Frank has caused the distortions we see in the housing market. Home building is well below historical measures and that has caused sustained price increases that are pricing new buyers out of the market.
1995 Redux?
The Internet Bubble began with capital flows generated by the Community Reinvestment Act 1995 leading to the subprime crisis 14 yrs later.
Portfolio Suggestion: CVS
CVS recently closed its acquisition of Aetna, a healthcare benefits manager. Synergies are expected to extend CVS’s strong financial history.
Market Trading 10Yr Vs Inflation Expectations
The market continues to trade 10yr Treasury vs US Inflation expectations. This is myopic.
S&P Intrinsic Value Index Update
Thus far, tariffs the US has imposed on opposing countries to negotiate lower global tariffs has had so little impact on US prices that it is a very hard call to identify any impact. The question then is “Why no impact in the US?”
Jobless Claims Vs Household Employment Hit Record Low
The recent trends in US GDP have accelerated with the Jobless Claims, Real Personal Income, Real Retail Sales and etc. continuing to signal economic expansion.
Oil Notes
I continue to think the risk for a major move in oil is higher….much higher.
Capital Leaving China…
Capital has been leaving China for a while, makes for higher US$ as a global safe haven.
Mortgage Credit, Housing And GDP
The current rise in MCAI is significant and should spur home building which has been well under ½ what one would have expected in a normal recovery. The MCAI should be closer to 400. It is currently 186 and rising.
U.S. Energy Consumption, Production, And Exports At Record Levels
In 2018, crude oil and natural gas accounted for 57% of all U.S. energy production, with crude oil production seeing an increase of 17% and natural gas an increase of 12% from 2017.
2018 Oil Price Collapse Had No Impact On E&P Activity Index
US Crude Production reaches new high at 12.3mil BBL/Day and Employment in Oil&Gas extraction industries continues a decent rise in its recovery from lows of Dec 2017.
Employment & Vehicle Sales Holding, Chemical Activity Barometer & Temp Help Rising
The employment reports today show a rise in the Establishment Survey of 263,000 and drop in the Household Survey of 103,000.
S&P Value Investor Index Update
The Dallas Fed 12 month Trimmed Mean PCE reported at 1.96%.. slightly revised higher past 2 months. The Natural Rate is 4.90%. This leaves the SP500 27.4% above the Value Investor Index at $2,311.
321 to 336 of 742 Posts
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