Todd Sullivan Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Hedge Fund Manager, Blogger and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners

Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future ... more

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T-Bill/10yr Spread Is A Lesson In Behavioral Finance
There is a lot of talk of ‘market tops’ and pending ‘collapses’. This talk has been with us since this investment cycle began in Spring 2009. It is market psychology based on recent market prices.
Oil Prices And Consumption
Economics suggests continued oil consumption and higher prices. Geopolitical events, i.e. Iran sanctions, could spike prices short term, but too hard to call.
Oil Update - Monday, Sept. 17
We are up 86% in this trade and I think there is another jump higher in oil prices coming.
JOLTS Revised Higher
The economic data continues to surge while the consensus calls for correction.
S&P Intrinsic Value And Update
Net/net, conditions remain as positive as they have been since 2009 even though valuations are no longer steeply discounted.
Fundamentals Change Before They Become Headlines
Oil exports began with refined products in 2006 and have continued to rise at ~13% annual pace since. We actually became a net exporter of Refined Products Sept 2011.
Next Wave Of Housing Demand...Renters
The Community Reinvestment Act 1995 pushed Multi-Family below 20% in 2005 as the Sub-Prime Crisis built to its peak in 2006.
Trade, Deregulation, Taxes & Sanctions
Along with USD strength, we have also seen a fall in the US 10yr Treasury rate as global capital seeks a safe haven away from sanctioned countries.
So Much Good News….Just Ignore Politics
One of most intense arguments, ongoing for this cycle, has been hourly wage growth and which political party is doing the most to help employees.
Chemical Activity Barometer Record High, US Real GDP & Real Private GDP Highest This Cycle-Meets Skepticism
Economists the past couple of months have shifted GDP forecasts sharply higher as economic evidence and headlines forced them to reassess earlier levels of pessimism.
The Oil Situation - Wednesday, July 25
The current US Crude Inventories, 5yr MovAvg Inventories, and $WTI have been related since 2003.
If It Goes Up, Valuation Goes Out The Window
Netflix is a good example of Momentum Investing on price trends without regard to valuation.
Gold, Oil & Inflation
Gold prices have slipped recently without a noticeable inflation threat.
Soybeans & Media Tariff Hype
In my opinion, the recent tariff discussion has not as yet had any unusual impact on soybean prices different from the inverse relationship with the US dollar.
Crude Inventory Below 5yr Avg
US Crude Inv drops to 405mil BBL vs 5yr mov avg of 426mil BBL.
US Dollar Remains The “Elephant In The Room”
There are several recent trend extensions which tell investors to hold the course.
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