Todd Sullivan Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Hedge Fund Manager, Blogger and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners

Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future ... more

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Markets Do Not Have A Math Solution
The investment solution to markets starts with recognition that market prices today are based on our perceptions of the future. The problem with this is that cannot foresee future events.
Chemical Activity, Job Openings And Temp Help At Record High
Today, market prices are mildly over-priced if one looks at the indices, but the Chemical Activity Barometer(CAB), Job Openings, Temp Help are at record highs and show no signs of stalling.
Packaged Goods & The Dollar
The general market perception is consumers have turned away from Branded packaged goods.
Where Does Inflation Come From? Hint: Not Oil
Inflation’s source has seemingly confused many for decades and continues to do so.
Dollar And Oil Rising
Capital shifts globally everyday seeking the highest returns which sometimes means avoiding a perceived higher level of risk.
Natural Rate, 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE, LT Trend Of Real US Private GDP
There is much fear of inflation rising with some claiming it is beginning to soar. The 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE from the Dallas Fed is quite tame and has been so for some time.
Data Still Pointing To Higher Equity Prices
The media and most advisors take every monthly economic release as 'do-or-die'.
Oil Going Still Higher
The EIA reports indicate record exports of US Crude Exports and US Export Refined Products continue to be achieved.
T-Bill/10yr Treasury Spread Forecasts A Continuing Expanding Economy
The discussion today is much about the 10yr Treas rate breaching above 3%. Higher rates can have an impact on asset prices when compared to Cash Flow Yields.
Oil, Economics And Risk
The action the past few days of weak $WTI/stronger US$ is being reversed on Trump’s strong response to Syria’s actions. Will be interesting to watch next few days.
FANG Vs The Market
Economic activity continues to be strong. Once the FANG correction is over, I expect markets to rise to new highs.
Key Indicators Growing…
Chemical Activity Barometer(CAB) is reported at 121.19 which represents a short pause after strong period of rise.
Boeing’s Valuation Pop
Should BA be price this highly?
The Fed Is Behind The Market On Rates
Fed well behind T-Bill rates. Fed will need 0.5% rise in Fed Funds to normalize spread to T-Bill rate which is now 0.3% above FFunds.
Now “Inflation” Is A Concern?
Inflation has been associated with increases in government spending. Any change will be obvious in the 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE. At the moment the 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE remains stable.
Indicators Pointing To Continued Growth
The employment reports have again positively surprised forecasters. The Household Survey rose by 785,000. Light Weight Vehicle sales continue to hold at appropriate levels for continued economic expansion.
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