Todd Sullivan Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Hedge Fund Manager, Blogger and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners

Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future ... more

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So Much Good News….Just Ignore Politics
One of most intense arguments, ongoing for this cycle, has been hourly wage growth and which political party is doing the most to help employees.
Chemical Activity Barometer Record High, US Real GDP & Real Private GDP Highest This Cycle-Meets Skepticism
Economists the past couple of months have shifted GDP forecasts sharply higher as economic evidence and headlines forced them to reassess earlier levels of pessimism.
The Oil Situation - Wednesday, July 25
The current US Crude Inventories, 5yr MovAvg Inventories, and $WTI have been related since 2003.
If It Goes Up, Valuation Goes Out The Window
Netflix is a good example of Momentum Investing on price trends without regard to valuation.
Gold, Oil & Inflation
Gold prices have slipped recently without a noticeable inflation threat.
Soybeans & Media Tariff Hype
In my opinion, the recent tariff discussion has not as yet had any unusual impact on soybean prices different from the inverse relationship with the US dollar.
Crude Inventory Below 5yr Avg
US Crude Inv drops to 405mil BBL vs 5yr mov avg of 426mil BBL.
US Dollar Remains The “Elephant In The Room”
There are several recent trend extensions which tell investors to hold the course.
Watch The T-Bill/10yr Spread…
Every market cycle proves confusing to most investors. Prices rarely make sense from historical valuation metrics and new events and reports typically impact prices unexpectedly.
Markets Do Not Have A Math Solution
The investment solution to markets starts with recognition that market prices today are based on our perceptions of the future. The problem with this is that cannot foresee future events.
Chemical Activity, Job Openings And Temp Help At Record High
Today, market prices are mildly over-priced if one looks at the indices, but the Chemical Activity Barometer(CAB), Job Openings, Temp Help are at record highs and show no signs of stalling.
Packaged Goods & The Dollar
The general market perception is consumers have turned away from Branded packaged goods.
Where Does Inflation Come From? Hint: Not Oil
Inflation’s source has seemingly confused many for decades and continues to do so.
Dollar And Oil Rising
Capital shifts globally everyday seeking the highest returns which sometimes means avoiding a perceived higher level of risk.
Natural Rate, 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE, LT Trend Of Real US Private GDP
There is much fear of inflation rising with some claiming it is beginning to soar. The 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE from the Dallas Fed is quite tame and has been so for some time.
Data Still Pointing To Higher Equity Prices
The media and most advisors take every monthly economic release as 'do-or-die'.
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