Chief Market Strategist
Contributor's Links: finomgroup.com

After 20 years in the retail and consumer goods sector, I became a research analyst and market strategist for Capital Ladder Advisory Group. Since 2011, I have published some 400+ articles surrounding mainstream retailers like Bed Bath & Beyond, Target, Costco and more. I've covered ... more

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E 2018 Market Volatility And Volatility Trading Update
We foresee future bouts of volatility in the coming months that will plunge the VIX below 11% and take it above 22%, even if ever so briefly.
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Buybacks, Margin Debt And Digging Beyond Superficial Headlines
Corporate buybacks are NOT the only thing holding up the market, but those buybacks are one of the market’s supporting variables.
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It's Easy To Predict Market Outcomes With Precedence, But Without...?
This time is different, but more importantly, the markets are forced to differentiate from the past as they evolve. Now let’s explore why we revisit this perspective.
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Warnings On Selling Volatility Ahead Of Seasonality
Why is the VIX back to readings that express market complacency?
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Central Banks Take Over The Trading Week With Bouts Of Volatility Expected
The short-VOL trade has been a broadly highlighted, criticized and sensationalized trading strategy in 2018 given the February VIX event that found XIV expressing an accelerated termination event.
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Tony Dwyer Takes S&P Target To 3,200, But Jim Cramer & Morgan Stanley Raise Cautionary Flags
Even with the threat of retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. forthcoming from the likes of the EU, Mexico and Canada, investors have been able to form a risk-on appetite in the last several trading sessions.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Warning: The Everything Bubble Is In Serious Trouble
12 hours ago

I'm not sure where it's debatable that the Fed is the only authority with regards to its balance sheet and actions related to its holdings. Somewhat a red herring argument no and somewhat unrelated. Nonetheless, something I will certainly read as I'm speaking out our annual conference and appreciate a wide range of resources to include in my materials. Thank you kindly!

In this article: SPX, TNX
Warning: The Everything Bubble Is In Serious Trouble
13 hours ago

Investors for equities? Bonds? I think many in equities but the cyclical demand for bonds/yield back even then was significantly lower than the previous cycle. Demand peak for 2008 cycle that you might say started post 9-11 was right around 5% yields. The cycle leading up to dotcom crash was above 6.5%. So while we like to say the "Fed is responsible for this and that" debt tells a very constant and different story that ends with the inefficiency of the Fed rather than any causation from the Fed. Colloquialism are great for superficial rambling, but they mostly fail the sniff test.

In this article: SPX, TNX
Warning: The Everything Bubble Is In Serious Trouble
13 hours ago

My point is bond yields only go in one direction long-term and as fundamental economic principle, also displayed but the historic chart of yields where they begin in the upper left hand corner and ultimately decline from there and to current, at least. The can only do so much, again as indicated in the history of supply and demand for debt and for very brief periods of time. Hard to believe that the Fed, at this stage of modern economics, would be able to fool the amount of investors and governments needed to inflate demand to any significant degree.

In this article: SPX, TNX
Warning: The Everything Bubble Is In Serious Trouble
14 hours ago

Thank you Gary, and with respect to your comment/reply there is historically depleting demand for bonds over time. This can be reviewed with a historic chart of the 10-yr yield?

In this article: SPX, TNX
Warning: The Everything Bubble Is In Serious Trouble
14 hours ago

How can this be accurately viewed when accounting for wages, unemployment and the fact that even with yields rising, in kind with the pace of wages at this stage, we're still talking about a 10yr yield that will be nearly a full percentage point below the prior cycle's peak?

In this article: SPX, TNX
Stock Market Investor Margin Debt Reaches New High
13 days ago

But margin debt reached record levels in 2013, only to find it increasing through 2016 before dropping again. None of which resulted in a calamitous market crash as presumed in your article.

In this article: SPX, DJI
Stock Of The Week: Starbucks Corporation
28 days ago

How does it make sense to suggest that a restroom policy whereby individual patrons are allowed to use their bathrooms absent a purchase is a fundamental change. Firstly, when did they not allow such activity? Just because one store had an incident doesn't mean that an unstated policy wasn't still in effect as a business practice. Secondly, which retailer is play sheriff at the entrance/exit to ensure patrons are not just browsing or loitering? Is it McDonalds. Is it Wendy's, is it Wal-Mart, Target etc. Of course none of these retailers are monitoring such activities. It's the difference between public relations of no consequence to battle a headline of the day from an incident in one location.

In this video: SBUX
Where Is Inflation Headed Next?
1 month ago

Nice insights. Thank you for sharing them. But I think the general takeaway that can be found in almost every historical metric that surrounds the notion of inflation is that's its an impossibility shy of a few fits here and there that ultimately lead to the inevitable record deflationary lows.

Jim Cramer Stated That Trading Volatility Was For "Complete Morons"
1 month ago

He readily admits to not suggesting he outperforms but has generated positive returns since 2011

Jim Cramer Stated That Trading Volatility Was For "Complete Morons"
2 months ago

Surprisingly, his portfolio performance has underperformed the benchmark since 2014.

1 to 10 of 47 comments
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

AAPL Apple Inc.
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation
FEYE FireEye, Inc.
FIT Fitbit, Inc.
JCP J.C. Penney Company Inc.
M Macy's Inc.
NKE Nike Inc.
PEP PepsiCo Inc.
SODA SodaStream International Ltd.
TGT Target Corporation
UVXY PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II
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S&P 500 Consolidation Persists: 3 Big Market Calls By Marko Kolanovic
Whether it is trade with China or the Iran nuclear deal/sanctions that are still in search for resolution, all geo-political issues can be “trumped” by the fears of inflation/reflation.
Understanding Volatility And Vetting Resources Is Required For VIX Traders
The VIX or volatility doesn’t die nor does it have the ability to die, but rather it expresses an ability for a market or markets to mature past the point of greatest fears and from the events that cause fear to have taken place.

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