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Paul Hodges is a trusted advisor to many of the world's leading investors and companies.  He publishes The pH Report, which focuses on the impact of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus on world markets. Paul serves as a ... more


Your ‘A-Z Guide’ To The Brexit Negotiations
Investors and companies are far too complacent about the risks of No-Deal Brexit and, even worse, a Hostile No-Deal Brexit. Even No Deal will massively disrupt trade. A Hostile No-Deal could mean transport being disrupted and vital supplies at risk.
Global Smartphone Recession Confirms Consumer Downturn
The smartphone market has gone into recession for the first time in its history, highlighting the risks to the global economy. Companies like Samsung are under major pressure as the profitable middle-ground market disappears.
Investors Need To Prepare For The End Of "Business As Usual"
More and more cracks are appearing in the world's debt-fuelled financial markets. Prudent investors will be preparing for the next recession and a dramatic increase in the number of corporate bankruptcies.
“What Could Possibly Go Wrong?”
All four of my core forecasts for 2018 have come true this year. But complacency still abounds as we now enter the endgame for the policy failures of the past decade.
No More "Business As Usual" For Europe's Petrochemicals Companies
Europe's petrochemical sector must prepare now for the combined impact of trade wars, new US polymer start-ups, the circular economy and Brexit. That was the clear message from last week's European Petrochemical Association meeting in Vienna.
Are Your Investments Ready For Brexit?
In less than 6 months, the UK economy could face its greatest shake-up since World War II. Nothing has yet been agreed about future UK-EU27 trade - and the risk of a No Deal Brexit is rising.  Contingency planning is essential.


Latest Comments
The Global Economy’s Best Leading Indicator Forecasts A Downturn
1 year ago

The link above for the IMF data seems to have broken, so I am adding it here

Political Risk Rises As Trump Sets Out To Change America’s Relationship With The World
1 year ago

It seems the links to the 2 videos were somehow removed in the editing process, so here they are:

Click here for Kennedy

Click here for Reagan

Today’s New Normal World – The Challenge Of The 100-Year Life
1 year ago

Trump unfortunately shares Obama's myopia about the economic impact of America's aging Boomers on the economy. Its much easier for him to suggest everything can be resolved via a trade war with China, just as Obama found it easier to argue that monetary policy was the solution.

1 to 3 of 3 comments




Latest Posts
An 11th Birthday – And A Look Forward To 2021
In the midst of major uncertainty, its often useful to take a longer-term view
Airbus Warns Of “dawning Reality” There May Be No Brexit Deal
Many investors have ignored the fact that the UK is currently set to leave the EU next March. Now Airbus and BMW have warned they urgently need more detail on what new trading arrangements will apply, and if there will be a Transition Agreement.
Chemical Industry Data Shows Reflation Remains Hope, Not Reality
Hopes for the "great reflation" and return of inflation are likely to be disappointed over the next few months, as China's $150bn/month shadow lending stimulus is cut back to zero
Plastics Demand Is Peaking As Circular Economy Arrives
The world has produced 8.3bn tonnes of plastics since the industry began 60 years ago. Almost all of it is still with us - in the oceans and in landfill. Companies need to develop new business models to tackle this problem.
The Blog’s 10th Birthday
The blog has successfully forecast the subprime crisis, major movements in the oil price and more recently, Trump's success and the Leave result in the UK referendum. Today is its 10th birthday.
G7 Summit Shows Leaders Are Forgetting The Lesson Of The 1930s
G7 leaders spent more time arguing than agreeing in Italy at the weekend. They have forgotten that no single country can resolve today's problems - as JFK said long ago,"United there is little we cannot do, divided there is little we can do"
US Permian’s Shale Oil Surge Highlights OPEC’s Failed Strategy
OPEC and Russia have made a massive mistake in trying to put a $50/bbl floor under oil prices. They have given a window of opportunity to US Permian Basin producers to ramp up huge volumes of low-cost production.
Debt, Demographics Set To Destroy Trump's GDP Growth Dream
President Trump is copying Presidents George W Bush and Obama in hoping stimulus policies will restore US GDP growth levels to 3%. But today's aging population makes this impossible. Instead it will add to the debt mountain their stimulus created .

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