Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E US Monetary And Fiscal Authorities Need To Get Their Acts Together
Global liquidity is shrinking and that means the USD index is on the rise. The Fed should slow down the tapering of its balance sheet and also slow down its moves towards normalization.
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E Investors Brace Themselves For Possible EM Contagion
The Turkish balance of payments crisis threatens to spread to key emerging markets which have amassed huge foreign currency debts, especially in the private sector.
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E When It Comes To Financial Crises In The Emerging Markets, History Repeats Itself All Too Often
The collapsing Turkish lira provides yet another example of how financial crisis are a regular feature amongst emerging economies.
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E U.S. Fiscal Policy Works Against Trump’s Trade Strategy
As the United States government runs up ever growing larger deficits, it will be forced to rely on its major trading partners, such as China, Japan and Germany to use their surplus dollars to buy ever-growing amounts of U.S. debt.
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E Trump Needs To Understand That In A Trade War Currencies Have To Adjust
True to form, President Trump, once again, confuses the public discourse on trade by tying currency adjustments to U.S. domestic monetary policy.
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E Chinese Weapons
China must seek other ways in which go toe-to-toe with the United States in this epic battle.
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Latest Comments
China Fires Back With Tariffs On LNG, Wheat, Whine: US LNG Exporters Dive
12 days ago

It took Canada and the EU 10 years to finalize a trade pact. Fat chance the US will do deal in less time given all the animosity created by Trump

In this article: WEAT
Deflationary Signs Emerge As Trump’s Trade War Heats Up
1 month ago

US chief trade negotiator, Robert_E._Lighthizer was a long time lobbyist for the steel companies and so not surprising he convinced Trump to go after steel imports. As a Canadian, I am incredulous that Canadian steel exports to the US were hit with a 25% tariff---on the grounds that Canada is a national security threat! It happens that Canadian steel exports to the US equal US steel exports to Canada. Where is the sanity in that decision to hit Canada?

Peter Navarro, Trump's chief advisor on trade, has gone on record as saying that countries will not retaliate against the US because they need the US market. Arrogance and a total misreading of the degree to which other countries will go to lengths to protect their industries.

Liquidity Tightens Just As The World Needs More Dollars
1 month ago

Two point of clarification. First,The US domestically saves too little to fund the Federal deficit. Thus the deficit can only be fully financed with dollars that are held in reserve by US trade partners who run trade surpluses with US, such as China, Japan, EU and many emerging markets. Second, The Fed takes cash out of the markets when the bonds it currently hold mature. Thus there is a demand for USD to fund deficits but at the same the supply shrinks. A stronger dollar only makes matters worse since encourages more imports and hence a higher trade deficit.( ironically, should the USD increase by, say 20%, it would negative most of the tariffs recently imposed ). It is the twin deficits--- trade and govt budget deficits--- that puts the US in a bind, a bind that will get only worse under a protectionist. If you want to see how this plays out, read the history of the Plaza Accord of the mid-1980s, and substitute China for Japan.

Trump May Shrink Shipping And Air Shipping Capacity Utilization
1 month ago

Gary, there is the whole other side of the international trade issue with China and the US. The international capital account is starting to draw attention. China can devalue the yuan to offset the US tariffs, although that might lead to an outflow of capital from China. But it is a very effective weapon.Or, China can sell US Treasuries, drive up yields and mess with the US financial markets. This is less likely scenario, but one that should not be discounted.

In this article: DRYS
Setting The Record Straight On Canada-U.S. Trade
1 month ago

If I may have the final word. All Canadian political parties are firmly behind the Prime Minister and his response to US #tariffs. It is rare that all parties agree in such a unified manner. Given the size of the US -Canada trade, the US will suffer just as Canada will suffer by putting up trade barriers. If only that concept could be understood by the Trump Administration, everyone would be better off. Lets hope saner heads prevail

Setting The Record Straight On Canada-U.S. Trade
2 months ago

For whose benefit should Canada do this? Canadian companies who process dairy products have publicly stated that they have no interest in the US dairy products because the quality is not as good. Canadian diary producers are not pushing for greater access to the US.

On lumber the issue it is all about stumpage fees and every international tribunal has found that Canada has not violated any international trade rules regarding how it applies stumpage fees ( a form of royalty on land use). The irony for Americans is that US lumber producers can sell all they produce which is not enough to satisfy the US housing demand, so they are forced to import lumber from Canada under a high US tariff. Canadian lumber companies are doing a roaring business selling to the US, despite the tariff and US customers are over-paying for their homes. How smart is that?

Setting The Record Straight On Canada-U.S. Trade
2 months ago

Truthfully, I avoid any travel to the US. One of the big issues is the behaviour of US border guards at Niagara/Buffalo. One time the US custom officer saw that my passport showed that I travelled to Israel ( which I do often) and asked why I do so. Do I need to explain that to a US official in Buffalo?

Will Canadian Boycott Start With Kentucky Whiskey?
2 months ago

Take agriculture which has highly integrated supply chains, not unlike those in the auto sector. The two countries are so connected within the agriculture sector that a tariff war would devastate farms on both sides of the border. Canada buys more US agricultural products than China and the US is Canada's biggest agricultural market. The dairy industry that is singled out by Trump as the worst offender is less than 2% of all US agricultural trade. Is this all about votes in Wisconsin that Trump and his advisors are prepared to over turn 50 years of good trade relations?

The issue of Canadian supply management involves domestic quotas on eggs, poultry and dairy products. Canadians pay more for their own products than they would otherwise be the case without supply management. But we are satisfied with that, otherwise we would have done away with this form of subsidy years ago. The Canadian supply management does not contravene the WTO rules, so we are playing by the rules.

This is no different than the US Congress voting billions to subsidy agriculture in the US. We do not complain about that, yet Trump complains about Canadian supply management.

There are no 'pros' when it comes to putting up tariffs --- consumers are the big losers.

In this article: WSKY
The Canadian Housing Market Enters A Transitional Phase
2 months ago

Canada has a very small shadow bank---only about 10% of the mortgage market. The big six banks own 75% of all mortgages ( the balance is held by regulated credit unions, second tier banks).

Trump May Be Wrong About Winning A Trade War
2 months ago

Gary

You are most welcome to move to Canada. We are polite, do not want to turn the world upside and just go about a daily work. Also, the healthcare is universal and free.

Your assessment about farming and jobs is so right. When will the light go on with some of Trump supporters?

Norm

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Norman Mogil Commented on China Fires Back With Tariffs On LNG, Wheat, Whine: US LNG Exporters Dive:

It took Canada and the EU 10 years to finalize a trade pact. Fat chance the US will do deal in less time given all the animosity created by Trump

Norman Mogil Commented on Deflationary Signs Emerge As Trump’s Trade War Heats Up:

US chief trade negotiator, Robert_E._Lighthizer was a long time lobbyist for the steel companies and so not surprising he convinced Trump to go after steel imports. As a Canadian, I am incredulous that Ca...

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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (29 years 5 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)