Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

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E Setting The Record Straight On Canada-U.S. Trade
What rankles Canadians most is the total mischaracterization of the trade relationship and the complete denial by the Trump Administration to the facts of the bilateral relationship. Let’s look at the overall situation and some specific sectors.
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E The Canadian Housing Market Enters A Transitional Phase
A cornerstone of the Bank of Canada’s work is the assessment of the main risks to financial stability.
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E What Is Holding Down Long-Term Interest Rates?
It was just a month ago that bond investors were told to brace themselves for a run-up in the yield of 10-year US Treasuries, perhaps to 4 percent.
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E Why Is The Bank Of Canada So Focused On The Output Gap?
Canada's bank rate is set 1.25 percent and inflation is running around 2 percent, putting the real rate at minus 0.75 percent.
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E Government Regulations And The Bond Market Intersect To Change The Canadian Mortgage Market
Canadians looking for new mortgages are finding the landscape very confusing as both changes in government policy and commercial bank competition work in somewhat opposition directions.
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E Canada Is Unable To Participate In The Recent Surge In Oil Prices
Possessing the third largest oil reserves in the world and being the fifth largest oil producer, Canada should benefit handsomely from the recent run up in oil prices.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Setting The Record Straight On Canada-U.S. Trade
13 hours ago

If I may have the final word. All Canadian political parties are firmly behind the Prime Minister and his response to US tariffs. It is rare that all parties agree in such a unified manner. Given the size of the US -Canada trade, the US will suffer just as Canada will suffer by putting up trade barriers. If only that concept could be understood by the Trump Administration, everyone would be better off. Lets hope saner heads prevail

Setting The Record Straight On Canada-U.S. Trade
2 days ago

For whose benefit should Canada do this? Canadian companies who process dairy products have publicly stated that they have no interest in the US dairy products because the quality is not as good. Canadian diary producers are not pushing for greater access to the US.

On lumber the issue it is all about stumpage fees and every international tribunal has found that Canada has not violated any international trade rules regarding how it applies stumpage fees ( a form of royalty on land use). The irony for Americans is that US lumber producers can sell all they produce which is not enough to satisfy the US housing demand, so they are forced to import lumber from Canada under a high US tariff. Canadian lumber companies are doing a roaring business selling to the US, despite the tariff and US customers are over-paying for their homes. How smart is that?

Setting The Record Straight On Canada-U.S. Trade
2 days ago

Truthfully, I avoid any travel to the US. One of the big issues is the behaviour of US border guards at Niagara/Buffalo. One time the US custom officer saw that my passport showed that I travelled to Israel ( which I do often) and asked why I do so. Do I need to explain that to a US official in Buffalo?

Will Canadian Boycott Start With Kentucky Whiskey?
4 days ago

Take agriculture which has highly integrated supply chains, not unlike those in the auto sector. The two countries are so connected within the agriculture sector that a tariff war would devastate farms on both sides of the border. Canada buys more US agricultural products than China and the US is Canada's biggest agricultural market. The dairy industry that is singled out by Trump as the worst offender is less than 2% of all US agricultural trade. Is this all about votes in Wisconsin that Trump and his advisors are prepared to over turn 50 years of good trade relations?

The issue of Canadian supply management involves domestic quotas on eggs, poultry and dairy products. Canadians pay more for their own products than they would otherwise be the case without supply management. But we are satisfied with that, otherwise we would have done away with this form of subsidy years ago. The Canadian supply management does not contravene the WTO rules, so we are playing by the rules.

This is no different than the US Congress voting billions to subsidy agriculture in the US. We do not complain about that, yet Trump complains about Canadian supply management.

There are no 'pros' when it comes to putting up tariffs --- consumers are the big losers.

In this article: WSKY
The Canadian Housing Market Enters A Transitional Phase
6 days ago

Canada has a very small shadow bank---only about 10% of the mortgage market. The big six banks own 75% of all mortgages ( the balance is held by regulated credit unions, second tier banks).

Trump May Be Wrong About Winning A Trade War
6 days ago

Gary

You are most welcome to move to Canada. We are polite, do not want to turn the world upside and just go about a daily work. Also, the healthcare is universal and free.

Your assessment about farming and jobs is so right. When will the light go on with some of Trump supporters?

Norm

In this article: AAPL
Trump May Be Wrong About Winning A Trade War
6 days ago

Apologize accepted. I know you personally would never have approved of this behaviour!

I just do not see any way forward on the trade issue with Canada. Truthfully, the Canadian officials I know are really top notch and know exactly how trade flows between the two countries and just how to push back,, knowing that the American farmer will be on the same side. The whole mess is surreal.

In this article: AAPL
Trump May Be Wrong About Winning A Trade War
6 days ago

Canada is the biggest importer, not China, of US agricultural exports which are now in jeopardy. This is why Trump is having so much trouble with NAFTA. His supporters in the heartland are going to lose their largest customer. Canada is playing Trump perfectly by hitting at his weakness--- his voters in the heartland.

In this article: AAPL
What Is Holding Down Long-Term Interest Rates?
11 days ago

I think you are right. Pension funds need that locked yield and swoop down to buy when yields go up,even a few bps.

In this article: TNX
Government Regulations And The Bond Market Intersect To Change The Canadian Mortgage Market
1 month ago

Real estate agents and mortgage brokers tell me the mortgage market is dysfunctional because of these cross currents.

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Norman Mogil Commented on Setting The Record Straight On Canada-U.S. Trade:

If I may have the final word. All Canadian political parties are firmly behind the Prime Minister and his response to US tariffs. It is rare that all parties agree in such a unified manner. Given the s...

more
Norman Mogil Commented on Setting The Record Straight On Canada-U.S. Trade:

For whose benefit should Canada do this? Canadian companies who process dairy products have publicly stated that they have no interest in the US dairy products because the quality is not as good. Canadi...

more
Norman Mogil Commented on Setting The Record Straight On Canada-U.S. Trade:

Truthfully, I avoid any travel to the US. One of the big issues is the behaviour of US border guards at Niagara/Buffalo. One time the US custom officer saw that my passport showed that I travelled to Is...

more
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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (29 years 2 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)