Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E The U.S. Treasury Sell-Off Needs To Be Confirmed By Inflationary Pressures
Can the Fed continue to raise rates without creating a recession? The bond market is notorious for its fear of inflation.
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E The IMF Shines A Spotlight On The Risks In The Emerging Markets
Downgrading world economic growth from 3.9% to 3.7% for 2019 does not seem worthy of headlines. Let’s see what is behind this revision and what risks lie ahead.
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E A First Look At The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement On Trade
Let’s look at the major issues negotiated.
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E The Basic Flaw In The EU Fiscal Position: The Case Of Italy Today
Having survived the 2012 EU debt crisis, bond traders are now focussed on the looming crisis in Italy as that country’s government is prepared to run large fiscal deficits.
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E It Is Easy To Understand Why The U.S. Has Backed Down On NAFTA Deadlines With Canada
The facts regarding trade with Canada fly in the face of the President’s contention that NAFTA “is the worse deal” ever made.
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E Credit Markets Foreshadow A Slowdown In The Canadian Economy
One of the most reliable ways to forecast economic growth is to note carefully the changes in the rate at which credit grows.
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Comments

Latest Comments
The U.S. Treasury Sell-Off Needs To Be Confirmed By Inflationary Pressures
5 days ago

Ultimately it will be deflationary as a 25% tariff hits consumers

Surprisingly Fed members do not voice this concern.

In this article: TNX
Is The USA Too Weak To Let China Succeed?
9 days ago

Ironically, by putting up a tariff wall discourages efficiency improvement in the US and just opposite effect in forcing China to be more competitive. Making China great?

In this article: AAPL
The Basic Flaw In The EU Fiscal Position: The Case Of Italy Today
16 days ago

A country needs an adjustment mechanism to allow for changes in its competitive positions. The fact that Italy cannot use i the Euro to bear the brunt of its lost competitiveness it must adjust by a drop in wages and incomes of all types. it is not the fault of the Euro but the uncompetitiveness of the Italian economy that has driven the best to leave the country.

My point is that Italy cannot run an independent fiscal policy in the interest of promoting growth.because it must adhere to deficit limits imposed by the EU.

It Is Easy To Understand Why The U.S. Has Backed Down On NAFTA Deadlines With Canada
20 days ago

There is a certain advantage that I have living in Toronto when it comes to understanding U S trade policy.

Fed Signals Will Break The Economy. Wait Til Trump Finds Out
1 month ago

Gary, when you add the rising Fed deficit each year to rising Fed funds rate, the mixture could be toxic in a few years. Right now, the world is still buying USTs---mainly because of the problems in the EMs---but that could change for the worse.

China Fires Back With Tariffs On LNG, Wheat, Whine: US LNG Exporters Dive
2 months ago

It took Canada and the EU 10 years to finalize a trade pact. Fat chance the US will do deal in less time given all the animosity created by Trump

In this article: WEAT
Deflationary Signs Emerge As Trump’s Trade War Heats Up
3 months ago

US chief trade negotiator, Robert_E._Lighthizer was a long time lobbyist for the steel companies and so not surprising he convinced Trump to go after steel imports. As a Canadian, I am incredulous that Canadian steel exports to the US were hit with a 25% tariff---on the grounds that Canada is a national security threat! It happens that Canadian steel exports to the US equal US steel exports to Canada. Where is the sanity in that decision to hit Canada?

Peter Navarro, Trump's chief advisor on trade, has gone on record as saying that countries will not retaliate against the US because they need the US market. Arrogance and a total misreading of the degree to which other countries will go to lengths to protect their industries.

Liquidity Tightens Just As The World Needs More Dollars
3 months ago

Two point of clarification. First,The US domestically saves too little to fund the Federal deficit. Thus the deficit can only be fully financed with dollars that are held in reserve by US trade partners who run trade surpluses with US, such as China, Japan, EU and many emerging markets. Second, The Fed takes cash out of the markets when the bonds it currently hold mature. Thus there is a demand for USD to fund deficits but at the same the supply shrinks. A stronger dollar only makes matters worse since encourages more imports and hence a higher trade deficit.( ironically, should the USD increase by, say 20%, it would negative most of the tariffs recently imposed ). It is the twin deficits--- trade and govt budget deficits--- that puts the US in a bind, a bind that will get only worse under a protectionist. If you want to see how this plays out, read the history of the Plaza Accord of the mid-1980s, and substitute China for Japan.

Trump May Shrink Shipping And Air Shipping Capacity Utilization
3 months ago

Gary, there is the whole other side of the international trade issue with China and the US. The international capital account is starting to draw attention. China can devalue the yuan to offset the US tariffs, although that might lead to an outflow of capital from China. But it is a very effective weapon.Or, China can sell US Treasuries, drive up yields and mess with the US financial markets. This is less likely scenario, but one that should not be discounted.

In this article: DRYS
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Norman Mogil Commented on The U.S. Treasury Sell-Off Needs To Be Confirmed by Inflationary Pressures:

Ultimately it will be deflationary as a 25% tariff hits consumers

Surprisingly Fed members do not voice this concern.

Norman Mogil Commented on Is The USA Too Weak To Let China Succeed?:

Ironically, by putting up a tariff wall discourages efficiency improvement in the US and just opposite effect in forcing China to be more competitive. Making China great?

Norman Mogil Commented on The Basic Flaw in the EU Fiscal Position: The Case of Italy Today:

A country needs an adjustment mechanism to allow for changes in its competitive positions. The fact that Italy cannot use i the Euro to bear the brunt of its lost competitiveness it must adjust by a dro...

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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (29 years 7 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)