Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

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E The Bank Of Canada Raises Its Rate But Continues To Offer Lots Of Accommodation
When the Bank of Canada announced a 1/4pt increase in its policy rate today, few were caught by surprise.
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E Will U.S. Credit Conditions Slowly Apply The Brakes To Economic Growth?
Given the meaningful slow down in bank credit, it will be a struggle to achieve nominal economic growth necessary for the continuation of the recent expansion.
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E Canadians Get A Reality Check By The Finance Minister
A sobering look at the Canadian economy by the Finance department argues that the recent rapid pace of growth is not sustainable over the next five years.
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E Recent Data Puts The Bank Of Canada In The Spotlight
The release of the December employment report last Friday and today’s investment survey for 2018 have upped the odds that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will raise rates at its January 17 meeting.
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E Is Monetary Policy Easing Or Tightening?
Financial markets expect tight monetary policy for years to come. The bond markets predict that many central banks will fail to meet their 2% inflation target.
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E Another New Year, Another Set Of Forecasts Of Higher Inflation And Higher Bond Yields
The new year was ushered in with bonds selling off and all attention turned to the anticipated increase in central bank rates. The Federal Reserve has signaled that it intends to continue to raise the Fed funds rate in its quest for normalization.
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Comments

Latest Comments
A Funny Thing Is Happening On The Way To Rate Normalization
1 month ago

The whole question of a slow down in growth is related to the supply side of the economy. Namely, the labour force is slowing, participation rates are very low, productivity growth is weak and capital formation is low. The last item should be higher given the cost of capital, but the additional supply from added capital stock is not needed. Again, it is a matter of excess supply of labour and capital. The Fed never acknowledged this because monetary policy does not work on the supply side.

Saving The Economy: NGDP Targeting For The People
1 month ago

I bet if Milton Friedman were here today, he would advocate a squad of helicopters fly over the world dropping money of every kind in every country. The issue is whether this would lead to greater spending or greater savings.?

The Canadian Dollar Speaks Volumes On The Future Path Of Interest Rates
2 months ago

A valid point. That said, what has changed is what is normal. The EU is doing well with negative rates, so that suggests that North America could fight the next recession with negative rates, abhorrent as that sounds.

Clues To What Is Behind Yellen’s Inflation “Mystery”
3 months ago

Gary

I just the statement by Yellin on why they are going ahead with rate increases. She said " Sustained low inflation such as this is undesirable because, among other things, it generally leads to low settings of the federal funds rate in normal times, thereby providing less scope to ease monetary policy to fight recessions,"

Logical???

We Should Not Be Surprised That The Phillips Curve Has Broken Down
4 months ago

I agree. Thanks for your comment.

Kashkari Reveals Dark Secret Fed Plan For Wages
5 months ago

Yes, aggregate labour income will fall because of capital deepening as robots take more work away. But that does not mean that average wages will fall. They could go up as robots make their handlers more productive. The substitution of capital for labour has a long history that, in the end, made all of us better off.

Kashkari Reveals Dark Secret Fed Plan For Wages
5 months ago

Gary

If the Fed is trying to avoid wage inflation, then it is a phony issue. US labour shortages are being met by robots, not higher wages. Just read this report on what is happening in Wisconsin to find workers--- cheaper robots.

www.pressreader.com/.../281706909784713

Central Bankers Insist On “Looking A Gift Horse In The Mouth”
5 months ago

I have no argument with your points about the decline in relative shares. It is the source of all the political woes in the US. How much is the Fed's doing is hard to measure. With real rates negative, there is room for real wages to grow. Yet, something is holding back real wage increases.

Central Bankers Insist On “Looking A Gift Horse In The Mouth”
5 months ago

I read the article and the data are correlated but does this mean it is causal? Does wage inflation lead to a recession? At any rate, the situation is different today where wages nominally are stagnant and declining in real terms. The Fed admits as much, so they must have some other motive in mind if they pursue higher rates.

Central Bankers Insist On “Looking A Gift Horse In The Mouth”
5 months ago

Gary. I did not think the Fed singles out sectors or specific companies in setting monetary policy. Why clip wages given the huge income inequality that is so much in the political arena? I think the Fed just cannot accept that negative real interest rates can exist in an economy that is growing. In graduate school we were all taught that the idea condition is to have non-inflationary growth and we have this and the Fed is does not like it. Go figure!

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Norman Mogil Commented on A Funny Thing is Happening on the Way to Rate Normalization:

The whole question of a slow down in growth is related to the supply side of the economy. Namely, the labour force is slowing, participation rates are very low, productivity growth is weak and capital for...

more
Norman Mogil Commented on Saving The Economy: NGDP Targeting For The People:

I bet if Milton Friedman were here today, he would advocate a squad of helicopters fly over the world dropping money of every kind in every country. The issue is whether this would lead to greater spendi...

more
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PERSONAL BLOG

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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (28 years 9 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)