Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E Suppose You Were A Fly On The Wall At An FOMC Meeting
The Fed is asking investors to share their leap of faith that “expected economic conditions would evolve in a manner that would warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate”. This has become an all too familiar refrain.
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E Canadian Housing Market Continues To Draw Attention
Housing prices in Canada have garnered interest well beyond its borders as prices continue to surprise the experts on the upside.
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E The Canadian Economy Cools Down Quickly
No longer is the Canadian economy firing on all cylinders. Come this past July, the economy abruptly stalled.
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E The Bank Of Canada Has To Deal With Two Moving Targets
During the past five years, the inflation rate in Canada has been at the lower end of the Bank’s target range of 1-3%.
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E Clues To What Is Behind Yellen’s Inflation “Mystery”
The Fed freely admit that low-inflation is a mystery. Why does the Fed choose to ignore all the clues?
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E Let's Put Canada’s Growth "Spurt" Into Perspective
Export growth was rather mediocre in the first half of 2017, but more importantly exports have declined dramatically in June and July, approximately by 10%.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Clues To What Is Behind Yellen’s Inflation “Mystery”
27 days ago

Gary

I just the statement by Yellin on why they are going ahead with rate increases. She said " Sustained low inflation such as this is undesirable because, among other things, it generally leads to low settings of the federal funds rate in normal times, thereby providing less scope to ease monetary policy to fight recessions,"

Logical???

We Should Not Be Surprised That The Phillips Curve Has Broken Down
2 months ago

I agree. Thanks for your comment.

Kashkari Reveals Dark Secret Fed Plan For Wages
2 months ago

Yes, aggregate labour income will fall because of capital deepening as robots take more work away. But that does not mean that average wages will fall. They could go up as robots make their handlers more productive. The substitution of capital for labour has a long history that, in the end, made all of us better off.

Kashkari Reveals Dark Secret Fed Plan For Wages
2 months ago

Gary

If the Fed is trying to avoid wage inflation, then it is a phony issue. US labour shortages are being met by robots, not higher wages. Just read this report on what is happening in Wisconsin to find workers--- cheaper robots.

www.pressreader.com/.../281706909784713

Central Bankers Insist On “Looking A Gift Horse In The Mouth”
2 months ago

I have no argument with your points about the decline in relative shares. It is the source of all the political woes in the US. How much is the Fed's doing is hard to measure. With real rates negative, there is room for real wages to grow. Yet, something is holding back real wage increases.

Central Bankers Insist On “Looking A Gift Horse In The Mouth”
2 months ago

I read the article and the data are correlated but does this mean it is causal? Does wage inflation lead to a recession? At any rate, the situation is different today where wages nominally are stagnant and declining in real terms. The Fed admits as much, so they must have some other motive in mind if they pursue higher rates.

Central Bankers Insist On “Looking A Gift Horse In The Mouth”
2 months ago

Gary. I did not think the Fed singles out sectors or specific companies in setting monetary policy. Why clip wages given the huge income inequality that is so much in the political arena? I think the Fed just cannot accept that negative real interest rates can exist in an economy that is growing. In graduate school we were all taught that the idea condition is to have non-inflationary growth and we have this and the Fed is does not like it. Go figure!

Why Is Inflation So Low, Virtually Everywhere
3 months ago

Arthur

Welcome to the club of deflationists. Today's Stats Can CPI is up 1% y/y, yet the BoC wants to move rates up!

Norm

Do Not Hire Central Bankers To Forecast Inflation
3 months ago

It used to be that the Fed was "data dependent"-- I guess they just tired of the data not shaping up as they hoped. So, whose fault is that : the data or the Fed?

The Fed Is Behind A Different Curve
4 months ago

Gary

We have had negative real rates for several years and the world continued to turn on its axis as before. Germany still has negative nominal rates and it is doing better as is the whole of the EU.

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Norman Mogil Commented on Clues To What Is Behind Yellen’s Inflation “Mystery”:

Gary

I just the statement by Yellin on why they are going ahead with rate increases. She said " Sustained low inflation such as this is undesirable because, among other things, it generally leads to low se...

more
Norman Mogil Commented on We Should Not Be Surprised that the Phillips Curve Has Broken Down:

I agree. Thanks for your comment.

Norman Mogil Commented on Kashkari Reveals Dark Secret Fed Plan For Wages:

Yes, aggregate labour income will fall because of capital deepening as robots take more work away. But that does not mean that average wages will fall. They could go up as robots make their handlers more...

more
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PERSONAL BLOG

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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (28 years 6 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)