Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

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E The Bank Of Canada Pauses In The Face Of Very Changed Circumstances
It is not easy being a central banker when events well-beyond your control interfere with your path to higher interest rates.
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E Early Signs That Canada Is About To Enter Recessionary Times
By key economic measures, the Canadian economy is weakening and faces the prospects of worsening as we enter the new year.
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E Monetary Tightening Is More Than Just Higher Interest Rates
When Fed Chairman, Jay Powell, hinted that the Fed funds rate was “ just below” the broad range of “neutral”, one could almost hear the collective sigh of relief on Wall Street.
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E The Deflationary Impact Of The Decline In Oil Prices In Canada
History may not repeat itself exactly, but it can be an excellent guide to what lies in store, especially in the oil industry.
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E Canada's Fiscal Policy
Ever since the U.S. Congress passed the huge corporate tax cut earlier this year, segments of the Canadian business community have urged the Canadian government to do something along similar lines to make Canada more competitive.
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E The Perfect Storm Hits The Canadian Oil Sector
Yesterday, Canadian oil prices hit a record low of $13.27 bbl as the full brunt of the storm hit western Canada.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Trump Blinked, The Fed Blinked And The Powell Put
7 days ago

The Fed does not have enough room to cut rates to ward off a recession. So what can it do other than jaw bone the stock market not to lose faith and start to bounce back. But it is too late since the forces pushing in the direction of recession have overtaken the Fed. In the Tyler Durden piece JP Morgan is arguing that there is a policy error in the making noe

In this article: DIA
Monetary Tightening Is More Than Just Higher Interest Rates
7 days ago

Since NGDP and real GDP use different inflation measures, they should not be used interchangeably to argue one's case. NGDP can grow because of increases in output and/or prices. Also, the price indices used to calculate NGDP is current prices and for real GDP is constant starting with a specific year in the past. One can pick the measure to suit one's argument.

So, monetarists can take comfort from a higher NGDP but for which reason? Higher output or higher prices?

My real concern is that all the monetary measures that drive an economy are tightening up and this is showing up within important sectors of the economy.For example, here in Canada, mortgage growth is running at 3% annual growth, nominally and housing prices are going up. So, nominal housing is growing. However, if mortgage growth is adjusted for inflation then real credit expansion is zero or maybe negative. The housing market is in trouble because of this.

Trudeau Quietly Approves $10.5 Billion Corporate Tax Cut To Compete With Trump
14 days ago

Your analysis is typically misleading.. This is a fundamental difference between an accelerated depreciation allowance and a cut in the tax rate. Which is obvious to any business person. The US gave a gift with no obligAtion on the part of the business owners.Canada says no investment no tax deduction.

Why The Bank Of Canada Should Back Off From Further Rate Hikes
25 days ago

You are right. about a huge renewnal wave coming, The BoC is really concerned that they do not trigger a housing collapse. But at the same time they warn that rates are going up. A self fulling prophecy. I believe that the BoC is raising rates so that they have room to lower them quickly as the did in 2014 to deal with the collapse in oil prices. IT IS A CYNICAL ploy and may backfire now that Canadian oil sells for $20.

Several bank economists have come out warning the BoC as I have because of the oil situation

Trump Versus Powell: Who Is Right About Immigration?
1 month ago

We had a problem with illegals under a broken system in the 1990s

We dealt with it by introducing a new system as i describes and at the same time we offered amnesty for all illegals.it was the only way handle the problem.

Trump Versus Powell: Who Is Right About Immigration?
1 month ago

US should examine how Canada handles immigration. First, we take in about 400,000 a year or just over 1% of total population. Without that number we would actually depopulate which is bad for the economy. Second, the program is tied heavily to specific skills and qualifications so that immigration helps fill holes in the labour force. Third, we are the only country, I believe, that has private sponsorship for immigrants which means the govt does not foot the whole cost of resettlement. We took in 40,000 Syrian refugees totally under private sponsorship groups ( e.g. churches, synagogues, private charities, etc) without direct government aid. The process was relatively seamless without fanfare.

BoC Pushes Back
1 month ago

Increase in rate could be tolerated because of the strength in housing demand. Even with the mortgage rates up about 50bps over last year, forecast call for only a slight drop in new homes build as population pressures continue to push the market up. Even after a big change in mortgage rules in late 2017, home prices increased by about 6% in Toronto since the rules came into effect.

The Bank Of Canada Will Drop Anchor At A 3% Bank Rate
1 month ago

I think you are right on the mark. No central banker worried about P/E in tech stocks in the 100.But heaven forbid that wages grow at 4% the bond yields soar.

The Bank Of Canada Holds Out For A ‘Neutral’ Rate Of Interest
1 month ago

Canada exports to China about$ 30b mostly in unfinished goods. Canada exports to the US is $500 b in high value items. It is unlikely that Canada is looking for a trade deal with China. We signed on for the TPP but that excluded China.

As for you last article, I am going to stay clear of any comment for obvious reasons.

Cheers

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Norman Mogil Commented on Trump Blinked, The Fed Blinked And The Powell Put:

The Fed does not have enough room to cut rates to ward off a recession. So what can it do other than jaw bone the stock market not to lose faith and start to bounce back. But it is too late since the fo...

more
Norman Mogil Commented on Monetary Tightening Is More Than Just Higher Interest Rates:

see my comment to Gary

Norman Mogil Commented on Monetary Tightening Is More Than Just Higher Interest Rates:

Since NGDP and real GDP use different inflation measures, they should not be used interchangeably to argue one's case. NGDP can grow because of increases in output and/or prices. Also, the price indice...

more
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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (29 years 9 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)