Michael Ashton | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Inflation Products and Markets Expert
Contributor's Links: E-piphany What’s Wrong With Money?
On Bloomberg TV his audiences know him as the “Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer, having traded the very first interbank US inflation swaps and having been the sole market maker for the CPI futures contract. He is considered as the ...more

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CPI Summary For March 2024
Today’s CPI report was not expected to be particularly great. In fact, one of the biggest conundrums of market behavior recently has been the question of why investors seemed to remain confident that the Fed will cut rates several times this year.
Changing The Fed’s Target – FAIT Non-Accompli?
As the steadier measures of inflation have started to overshoot expectations slightly the markets have continued to price Fed policy becoming increasingly easier over the course of 2024 and into 2025.
Four Quick Thoughts On Fed Day
The Fed clearly believes that the situation in Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and its effect on the banking sector is manageable.
Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (Feb 2024)
Credit where credit is due, though: while Street economists were just a little low (consensus was +0.40% headline, +0.30% core).
Recession For Me But Not For Thee?
By late 2022 and for much of 2023, manufacturing was absolutely in a recession. The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Indicators had gone negative m/m in March 2022 and actually is still negative today.
AI: Even A Big Deal Is Smaller Than You Think
Assuming that the labor force grows at roughly the same rate as the overall population, real GDP per capita should grow at roughly the rate of productivity.
Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (Jan 2024)
Inflation is a long way from being beaten.
When To Own Breakeven Inflation
It is interesting to me that, with as important and liquid as the inflation-linked bond market is, the tactical allocation between TIPS and nominal bonds is at best an afterthought for most investors
Rising Mortgage Origination Hints At M2 Turn
Year-over-year growth in M2 reached 26.9%. But in 2022, as the Fed started hiking rates and shrinking its balance sheet, the rate of growth slowed until M2 reached its absolute peak in July 2022 and began to slowly decline.
2024 Balance Of Risks
The balance of risks favors higher interest rates, wider credit spreads, lower corporate margins, and lower equity prices.
Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (Dec 2023)
Rents aren’t collapsing. They are decelerating, and they will continue to do so, but they are not going into deflation.
Beware The Price Controller
No one with any actual sense believes that price controls make any economic sense. But they might make, for some people, political sense.
Beware The Hook
Perturbed systems normally don’t converge straight back to equilibrium.
Where Inflation Stands In The Cycle
Inflation is a consequence of the stock of money growing faster than real economic growth.
Money Velocity Update
Now that we have our first estimate of GDP for Q3, we also have our first estimate of M2 velocity for the third quarter.
How Higher Rates Cause Big Changes In The Bond Contract
One of the major effects of higher interest rates is that it makes the bond contract negatively convex, not to mention that right now the bond contract also looks wildly expensive.
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