Jeffrey P. Snider | TalkMarkets | Page 86
Chief Investment Strategist
Contributor's Links: Eurodollar University
Jeff is an Investment Strategist and currently runs Eurodollar University. Formerly the Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheaded the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambras client base. Jeff joined Atlantic Capital ...more

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The Obvious Politics Of Downturn(s)
QE never worked to begin the millennium and it doesn’t now, no matter how many additional letters and numbers are added to it.
China Softly Weakens Some More
There was nothing really shocking about China’s monthly economic statistics for October 2018. The Big 3, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Fixed Asset Investment, all continue along in the same way.
Live By The Oil Price…
Within the CPI basket, the “relative importance” of motor fuels to that average citizen is only 4.437% (as of September 2018). Total energy, which includes filling up your car, is but 8% of the total index.
China’s Pooh Lesson
It’s one of those “nothing to see here” moments for Economists trying not to appreciate what’s really going on in China, therefore, the global economy.
Why Bonds Are Going Nowhere
Thinking each bank views its own Economists without suspicion is how you end up with so many “unexpected” downturns. German bunds, for example, had been on a small losing streak until around October 9.
Approaching The Point Of No Return?
At the end of June, the crude curve really got out of hand. WTI futures had returned to backwardation many months before.
The Long Shadows
While the President now blames the Democrats’ retaking of the House for Wall Street’s recent woes, after himself being blamed for heated trade war stuff, the effective federal funds rate broke to a new shallow spread underneath IOER on September 24.
Converging Labor Trends
Maybe US workers understand intuitively the meaning behind the dollar, what it really represents for the labor market and economy, in a way that central bankers appear incapable.
Why Chinese Authorities Are Freaking Out
China’s CPI missed the government’s mandate for the 59th consecutive month. At 2.5% in October 2018, it was the same as September with food prices (including tobacco) still rising near 3%.
So Close, Yet So Far
The effective federal funds (EFF) rate actually dipped 1 bp last Friday. Having spent the prior eight trading days equal to IOER at 2.20%, it might’ve been heartening for US central bankers under siege.
China’s (Not) Safe
In another sign of repeating 2015, the Chinese are beginning to mobilize their “reserves” again.
Elections And Morbid Contango
A true economic boom spreads out real gains to the vast majority of the population. There will always be some proportion of people who are left out. But in the good ones, the true upswings, that share is minimal.
Harmful Modern Myths And Legends
The European economy is a global warning that “tightening financial conditions” are already causing very real economic disruption. It has been quite expected.
Still Don’t Get It
Capital ratios are meant to help define a “good bank” for the public. The thought being a bank widely recognized and accepted as a good one will be far less susceptible to a run.
BoJ On 2.3%: ‘The Decline In The Unemployment Rate Is Insufficient’
In 2017, as Economists worldwide predicted globally synchronized growth, Japan’s unemployment rate fell 0.3 points.In January 2018, however, the rate would fall that much in just the single month.
Frozen In Time, The Wrong S-Curve
Americans became more cautious as a result of the big 2008 contraction, whatever it was.
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